Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $1.25 trillion by December 31, 2026, based on the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market. It resolves after the observation window, with final resolution expected January 1, 2027; current live odds and smart money activity can be tracked as the market updates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,187.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, anthropic, Dario Amodei, Tech, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Moderately interesting contrarian No buy from a highly profitable serial cross-market trader, with the price already moving in their favor from 9¢ to 16¢.

  • This bettor is up $730k lifetime across 189 resolved markets despite only a 58% hit rate.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M deployed across 129 related-position markets.
  • Bought No at 9¢ in a relatively thin market, and the price has already moved to 16¢.

$1,041 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Moderately interesting contrarian No buy from a highly profitable serial cross-market trader, with the price already moving in their favor from 9¢ to 16¢.

  • This bettor is up $730k lifetime across 189 resolved markets despite only a 58% hit rate.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M deployed across 129 related-position markets.
  • Bought No at 9¢ in a relatively thin market, and the price has already moved to 16¢.

$2,146 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7447...a16d No, $66,374 (57% win rate)
  2. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $52,000 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x2f63...f247 No, $13,038 (85% win rate)
  4. 0xdf1c...2ebb Yes, $10,000 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xa61e...0abd Yes, $6,500 (37% win rate)
  6. 0xb1fe...423a No, $6,295
  7. 0x832b...5c91 Yes, $5,550 (80% win rate)
  8. 0xbace...3429 Yes, $5,422 (77% win rate)
  9. 0xceee...d39e Yes, $3,726 (66% win rate)
  10. 0x00d1...c8a4 Yes, $3,000 (100% win rate)

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US-Iran meeting around June 20

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Iran deal after July

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WTI peaks near $80 in July

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US-Iran deal announced soon

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Crude oil tops $175 by June

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Trump refuses Iran concessions

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Iran ceasefire survives late May

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Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

129dWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?$3,187 tracked2 signalsFinancePrivatesllmanthropicDario AmodeiTechClaudeBig TechAIAnthropic IPO
Yes
97¢
No
3¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “Yes
100¢
95¢
89¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

52d ago

$1,041 on No at 9¢

9¢3¢6¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

59d ago

$2,146 on No at 9¢

9¢3¢6¢

Related Theses

US-Iran meeting around June 20
Wallet_0x74471 trades 11 related markets
US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…US x Iran diplomatic meeting b…
Iran deal after July
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US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
WTI peaks near $80 in July
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
US-Iran deal announced soon
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US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…
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Will Keiko Fujimori win the 20…Will Rafael López Aliaga win t…Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino …
Crude oil tops $175 by June
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Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Trump refuses Iran concessions
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Will Trump agree to withdraw t…Will Trump agree to Iranian tr…
Iran ceasefire survives late May
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Will the Iran ceasefire contin…Will the Iran ceasefire contin…Will the Iran ceasefire contin…
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
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US x Iran ceasefire extended b…US x Iran ceasefire extended b…