Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed $1.75 trillion by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if Nasdaq Private Market reports that valuation on any relevant trading date; the market resolves on January 1, 2027. PolySpotter currently tracks $9,810 in smart money across one signal for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,710.
Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Anthropic, Dario Amodei, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO, anthropic, Tech
Notable Trades
Serial trader scales into Yes
A serial cross-market trader with 299 resolved bets added $9.8K to an existing Yes position as the market rose, though the historical record does not show clear odds-adjusted edge.
- A 77% winner across 299 resolved bets is adding another $9,810 to Yes at 55¢.
- The wallet trades across 31 events and 43 markets, with three positions in this event.
- The market has risen 9.5% in one day, but this is an add to an existing position rather than a fresh entry.
$9,810 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market short
A highly profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is taking a cross-market bearish position across Anthropic valuation tiers, including selling Yes here.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have placed $57.9K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a clear valuation thesis.
- Selling Yes at 51¢ is equivalent to buying No at 49¢ on this $1.75T threshold.
$1,717 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market short
A highly profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is taking a cross-market bearish position across Anthropic valuation tiers, including selling Yes here.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have placed $57.9K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a clear valuation thesis.
- Selling Yes at 51¢ is equivalent to buying No at 49¢ on this $1.75T threshold.
$2,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market short
A highly profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is taking a cross-market bearish position across Anthropic valuation tiers, including selling Yes here.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $568K lifetime.
- They have placed $57.9K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a clear valuation thesis.
- Selling Yes at 51¢ is equivalent to buying No at 49¢ on this $1.75T threshold.
$5,104 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
12-wallet cluster fading rally
A 12-wallet funded cluster with profitable history is fading a sharp rally in Anthropic's $1.75T valuation market via an effective Buy No at 40¢.
- 12 linked wallets share the same funder and have been positioning across related Anthropic valuation markets.
- This wallet is up $872k lifetime despite only winning 52% of resolved bets, suggesting selective high-value sizing.
- They are effectively buying No at 40¢ after Yes rose 36 points this week.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 53%
Proven sharp AI valuation bet
A highly profitable wallet with a 77% long-term win record bought $19k of Yes and has built a broader cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $566k lifetime.
- They bought $19k of Yes at 50¢, a large position in a market with about $49k liquidity.
- This is part of a broader Anthropic valuation thesis across 4 related markets totaling $39k.
$19,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x53c4...740b — No, $240,444 (82% win rate)
- 0x6550...8451 — Yes, $114,531 (52% win rate)
- 0x8a4c...532b — Yes, $73,255 (53% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $70,715 (63% win rate)
- 0xc58b...ff58 — No, $30,285
- 0x8454...331a — No, $7,453 (91% win rate)
- 0x5652...00c9 — Yes, $5,528 (59% win rate)
- 0x497b...717e — Yes, $4,420 (31% win rate)
- 0xa569...96ec — Yes, $4,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x04da...5f04 — No, $3,697
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