Part of: Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026

Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest. The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The prize may be shared by up to three laureates. A listed person who shares the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will resolve to "Yes" regardless of how many other laureates are named alongside them. If the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is withheld, is reserved for a later year, or has otherwise not been announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, published at https://www.nobelprize.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,134.

Categories: nobel, Awards, Culture, Nobel Prize, Nobel Peace Prize

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to No position

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader added a substantial No position in a thin market, though their win rate is not clearly above the odds they typically pay.

  • A trader with 658 resolved bets is up $314,000 lifetime and has traded across 163 events.
  • The $2,134 No buy exceeded this market’s recent 24-hour volume and added to an existing No position.
  • The trader entered at 73¢; No is now around 77¢, with a thin order book.

$2,134 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

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Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026$2,134 tracked1 signalnobelAwardsCultureNobel PrizeNobel Peace Prize
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12, 2026, at 11:45 AM CEST (5:45 AM ET) at the earliest. The Nobel Prize in Economics means the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed person is named a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics in the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The prize may be shared by up to three laureates. A listed person who shares the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics will resolve to "Yes" regardless of how many other laureates are named alongside them. If the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is withheld, is reserved for a later year, or has otherwise not been announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, published at https://www.nobelprize.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

2026-10-06 18:08 UTC

$2,134 on No at 73¢

73¢→100¢↑27¢

Related Theses