Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,695.
Notable Trades
77% winner flips bullish
A profitable 77% win-rate trader with broad cross-market experience is taking a fresh $2.9k Yes position at 32¢ after previously closing a No position, signaling a clear thesis reversal worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $53k across 78 settled markets
- They trade heavily across related markets — 125 markets in 82 events for over $1.2M total volume
- This is a fresh Yes bet at 32¢ after closing an earlier No position, showing a meaningful view change
$2,880 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Sharp cross-market thesis trader
A proven profitable serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate opened a fresh $2.8k Yes position on Claude 5 after previously closing the opposite side, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $52k across $1.29M invested
- They trade heavily across related markets — 123 markets in 82 events, including 8 in this event for $47k total
- This is a fresh Yes bet at 33¢ after closing an earlier No position, signaling a clear view change
$2,816 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $142,203 (71% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $36,094 (77% win rate)
- 0x01f9...4323 — Yes, $32,381
- 0xc8f5...0ba5 — Yes, $17,389
- 0x0e65...e33f — Yes, $15,413
- 0x4a4d...1f77 — Yes, $9,880
- 0x413f...47f3 — Yes, $8,976
- 0x962e...578d — Yes, $8,957
- 0xe95f...2112 — Yes, $8,819
- 0x1c92...00f8 — Yes, $7,470
