Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,682.

Notable Trades

Profitable AI event specialist

A proven high-volume cross-market trader with 595 resolved bets and $193k profit is buying Yes in a thin AI release market that has already moved from 63¢ to 68¢ after entry.

This bettor has 595 resolved bets, wins 67% of them, and is up $193k overall.
They have traded 5 markets in this same Claude event for nearly $30k, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
They bought Yes at 63¢ in a market with only $4.5k liquidity, and the price has already moved up to 68¢.

$3,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

3-wallet AI thesis cluster

Three wallets piled into Yes on a thin AI release market during an 89x volume spike, led by a high-volume cross-market trader and one wallet with a strong 76% win rate.

Three wallets bought Yes for $14.6k in minutes during an 88.8x volume spike.
One of the buyers wins 76% of resolved bets, and another has traded $4.4M across 60 related events.
They bought at 55-63¢ and the market is already at 64¢, showing immediate follow-through.

$14,557 on Yes