Part of: Claude 5 released by…?
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $51,405.
Categories: AI, Tech, Claude 5
Notable Trades
Brand-new whale buying Yes
A 2-hour-old wallet is repeatedly placing large Yes bets into strong upward momentum on a plausible AI-release market.
- A wallet created just 2 hours ago has already made $10.4K in flagged large bets.
- It bought $6.5K of Yes around 73¢ as the market surged 30 points in the past day.
- This is fresh conviction on a real product-release market, not routine position management.
$6,468 on Yes
Fresh wallet buying momentum
A 2-hour-old wallet has already placed repeated large Yes bets totaling $7.6k into a fast-rising Claude 5 release market.
- A brand-new wallet is already betting size, with $7.6k in flagged Yes buys within its first few hours.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 28.5 points in 24 hours and 48.5 points over the week.
- Buying at 72¢ suggests the bettor still sees value despite the recent surge.
$3,595 on Yes
Repeat new-wallet AI bull
A 12-day-old wallet is making its third flagged large bet, buying $4.5k of Yes into strong upward momentum on a plausible AI release market.
- This 12-day-old wallet has already made 3 flagged large bets totaling $13k.
- They bought $4.5k of Yes at 71¢ as the market jumped 28.5 points in the last day.
- The wallet is early but profitable so far, up $5.8k on $27k invested.
$4,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable 81% winner buying Yes
Surface because a proven profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet record is buying Yes into strong market momentum.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved bets and is up about $5k lifetime.
- Their past wins beat market odds by 23 percentage points on average, suggesting real edge.
- Yes has already moved up 25 points today, and this trade adds with momentum at 65¢.
$1,009 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large multi-market Claude thesis bought Yes despite the market pulling back below entry.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,400 resolved trades and is up $78,832 lifetime.
- They have traded 286 events and built a $20,335 position across 3 related markets here.
- Bought Yes at 39¢, implying they see meaningful upside before the June 2026 deadline.
$1,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
75% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp 75% lifetime bettor with a serial cross-market pattern is selling No, effectively moving exposure toward Yes despite previously holding No.
- This bettor has won 75% of 167 resolved trades and is up $35.7k lifetime.
- They have traded across 26 related events with $175k total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market approach.
- Selling No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 37¢.
$1,947 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Serial bettor buying No
Positive serial cross-market trader put $3.2k on No in a relatively quiet Claude 5 release market, with one earlier No entry already moving strongly in their favor.
- This bettor has traded across 29 events and is profitable over 87 resolved bets.
- They put $3.2k on No, a large share of recent volume in this relatively quiet market.
- One No entry was at 32¢ and the market is now around 78¢, so the position has already moved sharply their way.
$3,199 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable cross-market No buyer
Profitable 160-bet wallet is re-entering No with a $6k buy, alongside a broader cross-market thesis on the same AI-release event.
- This bettor has won 74% of 160 resolved trades and is up $32k lifetime.
- They bought $6k of No at 83¢, a large bet relative to recent activity in this market.
- They have traded 3 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$6,013 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable 8-market thesis bettor
Profitable wallet is building a broader cross-market Claude 5 thesis, with $70k across 8 related markets and a fresh Yes buy at 28¢.
- This bettor is up $110k lifetime while trading across 185 resolved markets.
- They have put $70k across 8 related markets, suggesting a broader Claude 5 release thesis.
- Entry at 28¢ implies a roughly 3.6x payout if Claude 5 launches by the deadline.
$1,583 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
Proven Anthropic thesis trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is adding to a broader Anthropic thesis as this market breaks higher.
- This bettor has 601 resolved bets, wins 67% of them, and is up $235k overall.
- They have put $21.9k across 6 related Claude markets, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- They bought Yes at 79¢ while the market is up 9 points in a day and 23.5 points in a week, confirming strong momentum.
$3,852 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 10497528, $182,267 (69% win rate)
- 0xab7d...40ba — Outcome 10497528, $13,000
- 0xe64e...c86f — Outcome 10497528, $5,182 (81% win rate)
- 0x2110...5850 — Outcome 10497528, $4,800 (76% win rate)
- 0x9925...b83f — Outcome 10497528, $3,186
- 0xf27a...7b4d — Outcome 10497528, $2,500 (71% win rate)
- 0xda63...b031 — Outcome 10497528, $2,270 (67% win rate)
- 0x5fc7...a9dd — Outcome 10497528, $2,077 (75% win rate)
- 0x7417...0e5a — Outcome 10497528, $2,062
- 0x5fdf...28a2 — Outcome 10497528, $1,946 (94% win rate)
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