Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,800.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

95% serial trader buying Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes before a major price move amid a large volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 95% of 3,100 resolved bets across hundreds of events.
  • They bought Yes at 89¢ before the market moved to 94¢.
  • Market activity spiked 18.8x and Yes jumped 26 percentage points, supporting the same direction.

$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

94% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite the market rallying hard toward Yes.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved trades and is up $3.6K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 40¢ against a major Yes rally, suggesting a contrarian view from a proven wallet.
  • The market is highly active, with $222K traded in 24h and Yes up 55 points in a day.

$1,210 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

$730K-profit trader buys No

A small but coordinated contrarian No cluster is notable because one buyer has large lifetime profits and the group entered before No moved from roughly 13¢ to 17¢.

  • One No buyer is up about $730K lifetime across a large betting history.
  • Three wallets all took the contrarian No side while the market heavily favors Yes at 83%.
  • The cluster entered around 13¢ on average, and No has already moved up to 17¢.

$4,449 on No

92% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No, with related cross-market positioning on the same event.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $6.3k lifetime.
  • They bought $2.1k of No at 80¢ while also positioning across a related market.
  • The market has drifted toward No, down 18 points this week for Yes.

$2,093 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

New profitable repeat bettor

A 4-day-old wallet is making a repeat, profitable-looking bet against Claude Fable 5 restoration, with nearly $4k flagged across related markets.

  • This 4-day-old wallet has already had two flagged bets totaling nearly $4k.
  • The wallet is up $475 on its only resolved bet so far, making this early track record worth watching.
  • Buying No at 74¢ goes with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 9 points in the last day.

$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable new wallet moves Yes

A new but already profitable wallet made a concentrated Yes buy that coincided with a fast 12-point move, though its track record is still very short.

  • This new wallet is already up $1.8k and has 5 resolved positions on record.
  • The $1.7k Yes buy helped push the market up 12 points in 5 minutes.
  • The bettor paid 60¢ while Yes is now around 52¢, offering a cheaper entry than their fill.

$1,245 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%

Fresh wallet scaling into No

A 1-day-old repeat large bettor put $6.3k toward No and is active across related markets, making this a notable conviction trade despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This 1-day-old wallet has already made 8 flagged large bets totaling about $16k.
  • It put $6.3k behind No here, betting access will not be restored before the July 1 deadline.
  • The same wallet is active across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$6,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 35%

Sharp profitable buyer

Surface despite the weak price-impact signal because the buyer has a strong 158-bet track record and $3.86M lifetime profit.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 68¢ before the market moved to 71¢.
  • The market is active and near-term, so a sharp wallet taking a fresh Yes position is worth following.

$1,149 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Three-wallet No cluster

Three wallets are aligned on No with $5.7k in flow, including a repeat new-wallet bettor and a profitable high-win-rate wallet, while the market has already moved toward their thesis.

  • Three wallets put $5.7k on No, with entries between 30¢ and 46¢ before No rose to 50¢.
  • One wallet wins 86% of resolved trades, while another is a new repeat bettor already flagged across 3 positions.
  • The market has seen heavy recent movement, and this cluster is betting that access will not be restored by July 1.

$5,668 on No

Proven AI-event bettor

Surface because the bettor has a proven 79% resolved-bet win rate with positive lifetime P&L, even though this specific bet is modest on a fairly liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.1K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 71¢, implying confidence despite the market already pricing restoration as likely.
  • The wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting a repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.

$4,654 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc135...21b0 Outcome 74798572, $26,357 (42% win rate)
  2. 0x3659...b2c2 Outcome 74798572, $15,664
  3. 0xa93e...0a8c Outcome 74798572, $12,286
  4. 0x95dc...5576 Outcome 74798572, $11,523
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 74798572, $8,846
  6. 0x79d9...baec Outcome 74798572, $7,800 (92% win rate)
  7. 0x5fae...4079 Outcome 74798572, $7,635 (69% win rate)
  8. 0x20da...3f28 Outcome 74798572, $6,845 (83% win rate)
  9. 0x2e7a...29f6 Outcome 74798572, $6,748 (53% win rate)
  10. 0x7bec...b4e2 Outcome 74798572, $6,295 (80% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 4 related markets

Iran ceasefire collapses by June

Covers 6 related markets

Iran deal before mid-June

Covers 6 related markets

US-Iran peace deal coming

Covers 9 related markets

Iran deal announced by May

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Uranium handover by June

Covers 2 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$47,800 tracked19 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

39d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 89¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

39d ago

$1,210 on No at 40¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

38d ago

$4,449 on No at 13¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

40d ago

$2,093 on No at 80¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

41d ago

$2,200 on No at 74¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

43d ago

$1,245 on Yes at 60¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

43d ago

$6,279 on No at 57¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

43d ago

$1,149 on Yes at 68¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

44d ago

$5,668 on No at 41¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

46d ago

$4,654 on Yes at 71¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

49d ago

$2,098 on No at 33¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

49d ago

$2,130 on Yes at 71¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

49d ago

$1,631 on Yes at 60¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

50d ago

$1,596 on Yes at 68¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

51d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 69¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

51d ago

$2,073 on Yes at 73¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

51d ago

$1,029 on Yes at 62¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

53d ago

$1,695 on Yes at 60¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

54d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 80¢

Related Theses