Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,445.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

4-wallet NO cluster

Four wallets, including a brand-new wallet, bought $7.0k of No in a tight window on a near-expiry AI policy market.

  • Four wallets bought $7.0k of No within seven minutes, all in the same direction.
  • One wallet was only 15 minutes old, adding fresh-conviction signal to the coordinated flow.
  • The market resolves soon, and the cluster entered around 67¢ with No already trading up to 68¢.

$7,046 on No

New repeat bettor backs No

An 11-day-old repeat bettor is building a $13.2k cross-market position on the Claude Fable 5 event, buying No as the market momentum strongly shifts that way.

  • An 11-day-old wallet has now placed $13.2k in flagged bets across this event.
  • They are backing the same No thesis across 3 related markets, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 10.5 points today and 50 points this week.

$4,471 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

New repeat bettor backs No

An 11-day-old repeat bettor is building a $13.2k cross-market position on the Claude Fable 5 event, buying No as the market momentum strongly shifts that way.

  • An 11-day-old wallet has now placed $13.2k in flagged bets across this event.
  • They are backing the same No thesis across 3 related markets, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 10.5 points today and 50 points this week.

$2,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

80% winner buys Yes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with 80% win rate and $3.86M profit bought Yes at 52% on a plausible policy-driven AI access market.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.86M lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 141 events and $5.6M in related event volume.
  • Bought Yes at 52¢ while the market has moved up to 55¢, suggesting early confirmation of their view.

$1,911 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 77578965, $7,000 (86% win rate)
  2. 0xa2de...6dd1 Outcome 77578965, $5,106
  3. 0x7bc1...8db4 Outcome 77578965, $4,782 (77% win rate)
  4. 0xd1af...f1a7 Outcome 68614156, $2,936
  5. 0x0c35...7f0d Outcome 77578965, $2,419
  6. 0x626e...fa46 Outcome 77578965, $2,262
  7. 0xa676...1c22 Outcome 77578965, $2,000 (44% win rate)
  8. 0xe7c6...2b25 Outcome 77578965, $1,796
  9. 0xac02...e636 Outcome 77578965, $1,679
  10. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 77578965, $1,640 (96% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 4 related markets

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Iran ceasefire collapses by June

Covers 6 related markets

US-Iran peace deal coming

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Uranium handover by June

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran meeting on April 21

Covers 10 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal announced by May

Covers 7 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$15,445 tracked4 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
100¢
71¢
41¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

7d ago

$7,046 on No at 67¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

8d ago

$4,471 on No at 84¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

9d ago

$2,016 on No at 84¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

12d ago

$1,911 on Yes at 52¢

Related Theses