Part of: Quebec General Election Winner
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
This prediction market asks whether Coalition Avenir Québec will win the most seats in Quebec’s 2026 general election, scheduled for October 5, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,620 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent signal showing 87% winner buying on CAQ Yes. The market resolves based on which party wins the greatest number of seats in Quebec’s 125-seat National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,620.
Categories: World, World Elections, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, Canada
Notable Trades
87% winner buying CAQ Yes
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L effectively flipped toward CAQ Yes in a quiet Quebec election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $28k lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a CAQ Yes entry at 19¢, against a market currently around 18%.
- Their $1.6k move was over 6x the market’s recent quiet volume, suggesting real conviction.
$1,620 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $28,520
- 0x5b72...bedd — Yes, $16,578
- 0x6a34...47e9 — Yes, $5,113 (68% win rate)
- 0xe948...ff23 — Yes, $2,000
- 0x98d0...f14a — Yes, $1,858 (69% win rate)
- 0x1f9e...4f1a — Yes, $1,300 (57% win rate)
- 0x8190...b247 — No, $1,091 (87% win rate)
- 0xcdbf...1926 — Yes, $829
- 0xd2a4...3ee9 — No, $540
- 0x6291...cc47 — Yes, $517
