Part of: MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $81,206.
Categories: Elections, Politics, Primaries, primary elections, House Primary, Missouri Primary, Democratic Primary, August 4 Primaries, US Election
Notable Trades
88% bettor adds to No
A proven bettor with an 88% win rate added to a No position, though the simultaneous large Yes trade makes the directional signal contradictory.
- This bettor has won 88% of 34 resolved trades and earned $252,568 in profit.
- They added $1,372 to No at 71¢, consistent with an existing No position now worth about 74¢.
- The much larger simultaneous Yes trade makes the overall signal unusually conflicted, so the No position is the more defensible copy.
$6,611 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Perfect-record bettor adds to linked No position
A perfect-record bettor is adding $34.6K to an existing No position while three linked wallets have committed the same way.
- This bettor has won 16 of 16 resolved trades and is up $179,516.
- They added $34,605 to No at 69¢, bringing their total position to roughly $86,600.
- Three wallets sharing a funder have committed $34,605 in this direction, while No has recently fallen 9% over the week.
$34,605 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial trader makes large bet
A serial cross-market trader with substantial lifetime profits placed a concentrated $34,159 Yes bet, though the simultaneous No purchase and sharp adverse price move weaken the conviction signal.
- This bettor has won 67% of 84 resolved trades and is up $767,883 lifetime.
- The wallet committed $34,159 to Yes, an amount roughly equal to the market’s entire 24-hour volume.
- The simultaneous $2,897 No purchase and Yes falling from 69¢ to 31¢ make this a high-risk, non-clean copy signal.
$37,057 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Elite trader turns bearish on Cori Bush
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate is exiting Yes exposure, offering a meaningful bearish signal despite the position being closed at a loss.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and earned over $1.1 million.
- They sold Yes at 38¢ after entering around 57¢, signaling reduced confidence in Cori Bush winning the nomination.
- The wallet trades across 68 markets and 50 events, making this more informative than an isolated exit.
$1,411 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Elite trader turns bearish on Cori Bush
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate is exiting Yes exposure, offering a meaningful bearish signal despite the position being closed at a loss.
- This bettor has won 84% of 170 resolved positions and earned over $1.1 million.
- They sold Yes at 38¢ after entering around 57¢, signaling reduced confidence in Cori Bush winning the nomination.
- The wallet trades across 68 markets and 50 events, making this more informative than an isolated exit.
$1,522 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
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