Part of: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
This Polymarket asks whether the official CME settlement price for front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures will hit $140 or higher on any trading day before the final trading day of June 2026. The market resolves on June 30, 2026, based on CME settlement data, with $30,369 in smart money tracked and recent whale activity on both Yes and No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $258,046.
Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil
Notable Trades
$495K-profit macro whale
A profitable wallet is effectively buying Yes at 16¢ with $30k here and $66k across related crude oil markets, showing a concentrated macro thesis despite only moderate signal strength.
- This wallet is up about $495K lifetime and is making a $30K bet on Yes.
- The same bettor has put $66.7K across related crude oil markets, suggesting a broader oil-spike thesis.
- Selling No at 84¢ is the same as buying Yes at 16¢, implying a long-shot payoff if crude hits $140.
$30,369 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 46%
77% winner oil thesis
Profitable 77% win-rate wallet is expressing a repeated cross-market thesis against crude oil reaching extreme highs, with $17k across five related markets.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $19k lifetime.
- They have placed $17k across 5 related oil markets, suggesting a clear macro view rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 83¢ means they are paying up for the view that crude stays below $140 by June 2026.
$1,660 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable macro bettor scaling NO
Profitable wallet with $478k lifetime P&L is putting $32k into No and $55k across related crude-oil spike markets, showing a clear cross-market thesis.
- This bettor is up $478k lifetime despite winning only 46% of resolved bets, suggesting selective larger wins.
- They bought $32k of No here and $55k across related crude-oil spike markets.
- Entry at 81¢ implies a high-conviction view that crude will not settle at or above $140 by June 2026.
$32,348 on No | Wallet win rate: 46%
99% winner oil bet
Elite wallet with a 99% resolved-bet win rate and $13.5M lifetime profit bought $9.6K of Yes on crude oil hitting $140 by June 2026.
- This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $13.5M lifetime.
- They put $9.6K on Yes at 19¢, implying a high-conviction long-shot oil move.
- This is a serial cross-market trader with 38 events tracked and a 99% win record.
$9,605 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
79% cross-market whale
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought $5.5k of Yes on crude oil hitting $140 by June 2026, adding a high-conviction long-tail energy bet.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up about $2.47M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with nearly $4.0M deployed across 82 events.
- They bought $5.5k of Yes around a 16¢ average entry, before the market moved to 19¢.
$5,511 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
93% winner fades oil spike
Surfaced because a highly proven 93% winner with positive lifetime P&L is making a large correlated bet against oil hitting $140 by end-June.
- This bettor has won 93% of 186 resolved bets and is up $45.9K lifetime.
- They put $17.2K on No at 83¢, adding to a $22K cross-market oil thesis.
- The market is liquid, but the wallet’s long track record makes the trade worth following.
$17,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner buying oil NO
Sharp wallet override: a 93% lifetime winner with positive P&L bought $14.1k of No and has $18.9k positioned across related crude oil markets.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $14.1k on No at 83¢, betting crude oil will not reach $140 by end of June.
- The wallet has $18.9k across 2 related crude oil markets, showing a broader view rather than a one-off trade.
$14,106 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable macro specialist
Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history is adding a modest but thesis-driven Yes bet across related crude oil markets.
- This bettor has traded 147 resolved markets, wins 59% of them, and is up $157.6K lifetime.
- They are active across 33 events and 65 markets, suggesting a repeat macro/event strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying Yes at 18¢ targets a high-upside oil spike outcome before June 2026.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
93% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a crude oil tail-risk market, despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor has won 93% of 186 resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $3.5k on No at 83¢, adding to an $8.3k cross-market crude oil view.
- The market is liquid with a tight spread, so the signal comes mainly from the bettor’s strong track record.
$3,509 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner buys No
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No across related crude oil high-price markets despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $43,440 lifetime.
- They put $3,735 on No, adding to an $8,513 cross-market view against crude oil hitting extreme highs.
- The market is liquid, but the trader’s long track record makes the 83¢ entry worth following.
$3,735 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xc3c3...eec8 — Yes, $90,544 (99% win rate)
- 0xa80e...b94b — No, $84,504 (46% win rate)
- 0x9631...89a1 — No, $84,217 (93% win rate)
- 0x1664...a0ce — Yes, $67,600
- 0x1925...4654 — Yes, $49,539 (79% win rate)
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $45,645 (32% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Yes, $44,626 (59% win rate)
- 0xf4d4...c3f9 — No, $40,000 (60% win rate)
- 0x80b8...7c06 — No, $22,382 (100% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — Yes, $21,787 (78% win rate)
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