What does this crude oil prediction market measure?

It measures whether the official daily high price of the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract exceeds $147.27 on any eligible trading day before the deadline.

What price would make this market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if CME Group publishes an official daily high greater than $147.27 for the active-month CL futures contract after market creation and by the final eligible trading day.

When does the crude oil all-time high market resolve?

The market's resolution date is January 1, 2027, covering eligible trading days through December 31, 2026.

What does the active month mean for CME crude oil futures?

The active month is the nearest listed CME Crude Oil futures contract month. It changes as contracts move from active to non-active status under CME Group's contract rules.

What are smart money traders signaling in this market?

The supplied tracker data shows recent smart money activity leaning No, including several profitable macro traders buying No. This is separate from the live market odds, which were not provided.

Part of: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether the official daily high for the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract will exceed the record threshold of $147.27 by December 31, 2026. The market resolves on January 1, 2027, and recent tracked smart money signals have favored No; live Yes/No prices were not included in the supplied metadata.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

28 smart money signals detected, totaling $133,790.

Categories: Oil, Geopolitics, Commodities, Finance, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adding to large NO

A profitable bettor is adding nearly $9,000 to an already substantial No position, though the 27-bet record does not show a pronounced edge over entry odds.

The wallet is up $14,016 across 27 resolved bets and has a 74% win rate, though its average winning entry price is 73¢.
It added $8,969 of No at 84¢ to an existing $30,882 position, a sizable vote against a new crude-oil high.

$8,969 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial trader shifts toward Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor sold No shares, equivalent to buying Yes near 20¢, though this may partly reflect trimming a large existing No position.

This bettor has won 90% of 344 resolved trades and is up about $198,000.
They sold No at 79–80¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 20–21¢, while crude’s odds have risen 7.5% this week.
They already held a large No position, so these sales may be position trimming rather than a new Yes bet.

$3,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Proven 90% bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding $12.4K to an existing No position on a market where No is priced at 88%.

This bettor has won 309 of 344 resolved bets and is up nearly $199K.
They added $12.4K to No, building on an existing position of over $20K.
The wallet has traded across 91 events, suggesting a repeatable track record beyond this market.

$8,547 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Proven 90% bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate is adding $12.4K to an existing No position on a market where No is priced at 88%.

This bettor has won 309 of 344 resolved bets and is up nearly $199K.
They added $12.4K to No, building on an existing position of over $20K.
The wallet has traded across 91 events, suggesting a repeatable track record beyond this market.

$12,421 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

New wallet scaling into No

A three-day-old wallet added $21.9K to an existing $51.7K No position, a sizable conviction trade on a quiet day despite no proven track record.

A new wallet has built a $73.6K No position, adding $21.9K to its existing stake.
The latest buy was about eight times the market’s 24-hour volume.
The wallet has no resolved bets yet, so its track record is unproven.

$21,881 on No

91% winner scales into No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate added $17.3K to an existing No position in a thin market, making this a notable directional bet despite the modest standalone signals.

This bettor has won 91% of 186 resolved trades and is up $384,504 lifetime.
The $17,289 purchase was nearly four times the reported 24-hour market volume and adds to an existing No position.
The trader has placed bets across 40 events and 89 markets, suggesting an established cross-market strategy rather than a one-off wager.

$17,289 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$5,567 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

95% winner buying NO

A highly experienced wallet with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought No at 88¢, with the trade large relative to recent market volume and part of a cross-market oil thesis.

This bettor has won 95% of 391 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
The $2.6K buy was about 80% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader thesis that crude oil will not hit a new all-time high.

$2,708 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

95% winner buying NO

A highly experienced wallet with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought No at 88¢, with the trade large relative to recent market volume and part of a cross-market oil thesis.

This bettor has won 95% of 391 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
The $2.6K buy was about 80% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader thesis that crude oil will not hit a new all-time high.

$1,345 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable serial macro bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 75% resolved win rate is adding to a concentrated No position on a long-dated crude oil ATH market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $143k lifetime.
They are adding to an existing No position, now with over $14k invested around 90¢.
They have traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting this is part of a broader macro view.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%