What does this crude oil prediction market measure?

It measures whether the official daily high of the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract will rise above $147.27 by the final trading day on or before December 31, 2026.

When will the crude oil market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026, based on CME Group's official daily high data for the front-month crude oil futures contract.

What price triggers a Yes resolution?

A Yes resolution requires the CME-published official daily high for the active-month CL futures contract to be greater than $147.27 on at least one eligible trading day.

What does active month mean for CME crude oil futures?

The active month is the nearest listed contract month for CME Crude Oil futures. It changes as the front contract moves toward expiration and the next contract becomes active.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter records recent bearish signals from macro traders, including multiple profitable or high-win-rate traders buying No. These signals reflect trader positioning, not a guaranteed outcome.

Part of: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether the official daily high for the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract will exceed $147.27 on any trading day by December 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if that threshold is reached; otherwise, it resolves No. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity, including recent signals from macro traders buying No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,326.

Categories: Geopolitics, Commodities, Oil, Finance, Iran

Notable Trades

80% winner buying No

A proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L is adding a cross-market macro position by buying No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.4k lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
Bought No at 86¢ as the market has moved against Yes over the past week.

$5,205 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

90% win-rate serial trader buys No

A highly proven serial trader with a 90% win rate and substantial positive edge bought No near the prevailing market price.

This bettor has won 305 of 340 resolved trades, with $191,075 in lifetime profit.
The wallet has a 25% edge over its average implied odds and trades across 87 events.
Bought No at 83¢ while the market priced No at 84%, backing a long-dated outcome through 2026.

$1,853 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial macro bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 75% resolved win rate is adding to a concentrated No position on a long-dated crude oil ATH market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $143k lifetime.
They are adding to an existing No position, now with over $14k invested around 90¢.
They have traded 38 markets across 26 events, suggesting this is part of a broader macro view.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$2,033 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$4,929 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$1,768 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

95% winner buying NO

A highly experienced wallet with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought No at 88¢, with the trade large relative to recent market volume and part of a cross-market oil thesis.

This bettor has won 95% of 391 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
The $2.6K buy was about 80% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader thesis that crude oil will not hit a new all-time high.

$1,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

95% winner buying NO

A highly experienced wallet with a 95% resolved-bet win rate bought No at 88¢, with the trade large relative to recent market volume and part of a cross-market oil thesis.

This bettor has won 95% of 391 resolved bets and is profitable lifetime.
The $2.6K buy was about 80% of recent 24h volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
They are also positioned across a related market, suggesting a broader thesis that crude oil will not hit a new all-time high.

$2,649 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$1,139 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $692k lifetime profit bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $692k lifetime.
They bought No at 86¢, backing the market’s favorite side with a strong track record.
The wallet is also active across related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%