What has to happen for this crude oil market to resolve Yes?

The official daily high price published by CME Group for the active front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures contract must be greater than $147.27 on any eligible trading day after the market was created and before the resolution deadline.

When does the crude oil all-time high prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on trading activity through the final trading day on or before December 31, 2026.

What price level is this Polymarket crude oil market tracking?

It tracks whether CME front-month crude oil futures exceed $147.27, which is the threshold specified for a new all-time high in this market.

What does recent smart money activity suggest?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,700 in smart money activity, with recent sharp and high-win-rate bettors buying “No,” indicating skepticism that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by the deadline.

What factors could affect the odds of crude oil reaching a new high?

Major drivers include Middle East conflict risk, Iran-related disruptions, OPEC production decisions, global demand, recession risk, inflation, U.S. inventories, and broader commodity market volatility.

Part of: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether front-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures will trade above $147.27, the prior all-time high level, on any trading day before the final trading day on or before December 31, 2026. Recent smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter has leaned toward “No,” with $1,700 in tracked smart money signals tied to this market. The market is relevant for traders watching oil supply shocks, geopolitics, inflation, OPEC policy, and global demand.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,210.

Categories: Geopolitics, Commodities, Oil, Finance, Iran

Notable Trades

87% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved-bet win rate and +$485k lifetime P&L bought No on a relatively quiet oil market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $485k lifetime.
They bought No at 77¢, matching the market’s current view but with a strong proven track record.
The trade is meaningful for a quiet market, with only a few thousand dollars in recent volume.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp macro bettor buys NO

Sharp wallet override: an 87% lifetime winner with +$478k P&L bought $2k of No on a long-dated crude oil all-time-high market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $478k lifetime.
They bought No at 75¢, taking the view crude will not break its $147.27 all-time high by end-2026.
The market is moderately thin, so a $2k bet is meaningful relative to recent activity.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp macro bettor buys NO

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 88% win rate and $287k profit, making even a modest quiet-market NO buy worth surfacing.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $287k lifetime.
They bought NO at 77¢ on a quiet crude oil market with only a few thousand dollars of recent volume.
The market has drifted toward NO over the past week, and this trade adds to that momentum.

$1,663 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

88% winner macro sharp

Sharp profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and extensive cross-market history bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $709K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 39 events with $1.8M deployed.
Entry at 78¢ on No signals confidence that crude oil will not break its all-time high by end-2026.

$1,635 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

80% winner buying No

Surface due to sharp-wallet override: an 80% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying No, with related cross-market positioning.

This bettor has won 80% of 155 resolved trades and is up $17,187 lifetime.
They are positioning across two related markets, with $2,745 total exposure on the same event theme.
Entry at 77¢ backs the view that crude oil will not break its $147.27 all-time high by end-2026.

$1,212 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%