Part of: NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

This prediction market tracks whether Darializa Avila Chevalier will become the Democratic nominee for New York’s 13th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections. The Democratic primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026, and the market resolves based on official Democratic sources, with “Other” used if no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,034 in smart money and 1 signal, including a recent sharp bettor move to NO.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,034.

Categories: Primaries, Politics, New York, Elections, primary elections, House Primary, New York Primary, Democratic Primary, June 23 Primaries

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor flips to NO

Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% long-run record flipped from a prior Yes position into a new No bet on a political primary market.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,108 resolved trades and is up about $71.9K lifetime.
  • They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying No, signaling a clear change in view.
  • Entry at 46¢ implies they see meaningful downside versus the current 54% Yes market price.

$1,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1c14...0869 — Yes, $5,248 (63% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $5,173
  3. 0xc684...2228 — No, $3,317 (79% win rate)
  4. 0x4b2d...f0d4 — Yes, $1,750 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x93a9...0b88 — Yes, $1,683 (59% win rate)
  6. 0x0894...d819 — Yes, $1,500 (84% win rate)
  7. 0x38e5...95e7 — No, $1,151 (78% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $1,000 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x58ec...b7a9 — Yes, $966
  10. 0x37a2...775d — No, $924

Related Theses

Keiko Fujimori wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

4dNY-13 Democratic Primary Winner$1,034 tracked1 signalPrimariesPoliticsNew YorkElectionsprimary electionsHouse PrimaryNew York PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryJune 23 Primaries
Yes
54¢
No
47¢

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Price History — “Yes”
60¢
52¢
44¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

1h ago

$1,034 on No at 46¢

46¢→47¢↑1¢

Related Theses

Keiko Fujimori wins presidency
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