Part of: NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,173.

Categories: Primaries, Politics, New York, Elections, primary elections, House Primary, New York Primary, Democratic Primary, June 23 Primaries

Notable Trades

Proven political bettor buying dip

Sharp profitable wallet with 83% wins and +$446k lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a political nomination market despite recent price weakness.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $446k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 30¢ after the market fell 25.5% this week, suggesting a contrarian view.
They are also positioned across 2 related markets in the same race, totaling $4.3k.

$2,011 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

5-wallet funded cluster

A 5-wallet shared-funder cluster is buying Yes on a niche NY-13 Democratic nominee market, though the individual wallet has a poor historical record.

Five wallets funded by the same source are positioning on the same side of this niche political market.
The linked cluster has put about $3.6K behind Yes, with this trade entering at 52¢.
This is a coordinated-flow signal rather than a sharp-wallet signal; the individual wallet is down historically.

$1,128 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 48%

Sharp bettor flips to NO

Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% long-run record flipped from a prior Yes position into a new No bet on a political primary market.

This bettor has won 79% of 1,108 resolved trades and is up about $71.9K lifetime.
They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying No, signaling a clear change in view.
Entry at 46¢ implies they see meaningful downside versus the current 54% Yes market price.

$1,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 89658892, $54,297
0x2b9d...adc0 — Outcome 89658892, $7,147 (50% win rate)
0xacad...3480 — Outcome 91673509, $1,805
0xe32b...626e — Outcome 89658892, $1,530
0x37a2...775d — Outcome 89658892, $924
0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 89658892, $692 (95% win rate)
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 89658892, $495
0x1cdd...e595 — Outcome 89658892, $461
0x3206...65da — Outcome 89658892, $409
0x0336...4bb0 — Outcome 89658892, $355 (95% win rate)

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Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through August

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Trump avoids insulting Netanyahu

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Sánchez Palomino wins presidency

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Kelloff wins CO-03 Democratic nomination

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Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

ResolvedNY-13 Democratic Primary Winner$4,173 tracked3 signalsPrimariesPoliticsNew YorkElectionsprimary electionsHouse PrimaryNew York PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryJune 23 Primaries

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.