Part of: MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,498.

Categories: Politics, michigan, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, House Primary, Democratic Primary, Michigan Primary, August 4 Primaries, US Election

Notable Trades

Serial trader flips bullish amid volume surge

A serial cross-market trader with $2.45M in activity reversed a prior No position and bought Yes amid a 75x volume spike, though the entry offers limited price edge.

This trader has placed $2.45M across 73 markets and is now buying Yes after previously closing a No position.
The market saw a 75x spike versus its historical volume baseline, suggesting unusually concentrated interest.
The 90¢ entry is near the 91% market odds, so the signal is stronger as informed-flow tracking than as a cheap price opportunity.

$2,520 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A proven bettor with an 83% win rate and $41,155 profit is adding to an existing Yes position, though the market is already priced at 88%.

This bettor wins 83% of trades and is up $41,155 across 46 resolved positions.
They trade across 27 events and are adding to an existing Yes position on McKinney at 88%.
The 88¢ entry leaves limited upside, so the strong track record is the main reason to follow this trade.

$1,280 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Perfect-record linked-wallet cluster

A perfect-record bettor is adding to an existing Yes position while three linked wallets concentrate $3,699 in the market.

This bettor has won 16 of 16 resolved trades and is up $179,269 on $1.63 million invested.
The wallet is adding to an existing Yes position, while three wallets sharing a funder have concentrated $3,699 here.
The Yes entry at 82¢ implies the trader still sees value despite the market already pricing an 82% chance.

$3,699 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

0x64c8...73ce — Outcome 26254438, $136,186 (75% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 26254438, $58,330
0x69e7...d3b0 — Outcome 26254438, $35,000 (54% win rate)
0xc2e5...b3a5 — Outcome 26254438, $11,314 (65% win rate)
0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 26254438, $10,000 (73% win rate)
0xfde6...7ed6 — Outcome 26254438, $4,000 (70% win rate)
0x661d...4dc6 — Outcome 26254438, $3,631 (67% win rate)
0x714d...c177 — Outcome 26254438, $2,613
0xe234...304a — Outcome 26254438, $2,000 (65% win rate)
0xec4d...be21 — Outcome 26254438, $1,800

Related Theses

Neither candidate wins GOP nomination

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Norman or Nordone wins GOP nomination

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McKinney will win MI-13 nomination

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Trump avoids insulting Netanyahu

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Kelloff wins CO-03 Democratic nomination

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Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

ResolvedMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner$7,498 tracked3 signalsPoliticsmichiganElectionsPrimariesprimary electionsHouse PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryMichigan PrimaryAugust 4 PrimariesUS Election

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Price History — “Yes”

99¢

89¢

80¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction