Part of: HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,122.

Categories: Elections, Hawaii, Politics, Primaries, deprec USA Election, House Primary, primary elections, Hawaii Primary, August 8 Primaries, court cases, US Election

Notable Trades

Early bettor caught 60-point repricing

A $2,063 bet at 38% preceded a dramatic repricing to 98%, making this a notable early directional trade despite the wallet's weak historical record.

The wallet bought Yes at 38¢, and the market has since surged to 98¢.
A $2,063 position represented most of the detected trading volume and coincided with a 25-point price jump.
The trader's 36% win rate is weak, so the price move—not the wallet's track record—is the main reason to study this trade.

$2,063 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 36%

Serial sharp bettor leaning No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate is net positioned toward No, though the simultaneous Yes purchase makes the thesis less clean.

This bettor has won 83% of 189 resolved trades and earned $1.24 million in profit.
The wallet has made $2,732 in No purchases versus $1,561 in Yes purchases, leaving a meaningful net No position.
The market is relatively thin, with $3,256 in 24-hour volume and a 7-point spread, so this sizable trade stands out.

$2,765 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Serial sharp bettor leaning No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate is net positioned toward No, though the simultaneous Yes purchase makes the thesis less clean.

This bettor has won 83% of 189 resolved trades and earned $1.24 million in profit.
The wallet has made $2,732 in No purchases versus $1,561 in Yes purchases, leaving a meaningful net No position.
The market is relatively thin, with $3,256 in 24-hour volume and a 7-point spread, so this sizable trade stands out.

$4,293 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 87632413, $10,289
0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 87632413, $8,588 (72% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 87632413, $5,982 (83% win rate)
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 87632413, $5,384
0x1c00...7af4 — Outcome 87632413, $1,289
0x1cdd...e595 — Outcome 87632413, $663
0x8fe7...6c1f — Outcome 87632413, $638
0xfe9e...6944 — Outcome 87632413, $443
0x1491...fd70 — Outcome 87632413, $200
0x2cfe...e4de — Outcome 87632413, $100

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Panama Croatia corners stay low

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El-Sayed will lose Wayne County

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Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

ResolvedHI-01 Democratic Primary Winner$9,122 tracked3 signalsElectionsHawaiiPoliticsPrimariesdeprec USA ElectionHouse Primaryprimary electionsHawaii PrimaryAugust 8 Primariescourt casesUS Election

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.