HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
4 signals across 2 markets · $10,569 tracked · resolves Aug 8, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks who will win the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. The event currently includes a market on whether Ed Case will become the nominee, with smart money activity showing a sharp bettor leaning No.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Serial sharp bettor leaning No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate is net positioned toward No, though the simultaneous Yes purchase makes the thesis less clean.
$2,765Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.0 - Serial sharp bettor leaning No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate is net positioned toward No, though the simultaneous Yes purchase makes the thesis less clean.
$4,293Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.0 - Profitable serial trader buys Yes
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader bought Yes at 60¢ before a 17.5-point weekly price rise, making this a credible but moderate-conviction signal.
$1,447Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 4.5 - Early bettor caught 60-point repricing
A $2,063 bet at 38% preceded a dramatic repricing to 98%, making this a notable early directional trade despite the wallet's weak historical record.
$2,063Wallet win rate: 36%Score: 3.6
Top wallets in this event
- 0x23d81b…0288$7,058 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x1f9e15…4f1a$2,063 · 1 market · 1 alert · 36% wins
- 0xecaa88…77a9$1,447 · 1 market · 1 alert · 72% wins
FAQs
What are the HI-01 Democratic primary odds?
The event tracks the market asking whether Ed Case will be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District. Check the live Polymarket prices for the latest implied odds.
What is being traded in this HI-01 prediction market?
This event covers the possible outcome of the Democratic primary, currently represented by the market “Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?” The primary is scheduled for August 8, 2026.
What is smart money doing in the HI-01 market?
PolySpotter has tracked $4,293 in smart money across the event and one signal. The latest alert reports a serial sharp bettor leaning No on Ed Case winning the nomination.
When will the HI-01 Democratic primary market resolve?
The Democratic primary is scheduled for August 8, 2026. Resolution follows the market’s stated rules and official Democratic sources; if no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, the market resolves to Other.