Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

This prediction market tracks whether Flavio Bolsonaro will receive the most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election in the Federal District. The market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026, based on the official vote ranking; ties are settled alphabetically by listed candidate name.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,378.

Categories: Politics, Main Election, Global Elections, Brazil, Elections

Notable Trades

Sharp serial trader buys Brazil election favorite

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate made a large fresh purchase in a thin Brazil election market that has surged 47.5% in one day.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 215 resolved trades and is up $1.08 million lifetime.
  • The $1,378 purchase represents 58% of the market’s 24-hour volume, despite its wide 11-point spread.
  • The Yes price rose 47.5% in one day, corroborating strong recent buying pressure.

$1,378 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $2,222
  2. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $2,004 (83% win rate)
  3. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $1,140 (57% win rate)
  4. 0xeb49...693e Yes, $785 (91% win rate)
  5. 0xd79a...7e51 Yes, $695 (63% win rate)
  6. 0x7f9e...3a0e Yes, $520 (91% win rate)
  7. 0x1f9e...4f1a Yes, $475 (40% win rate)
  8. 0x8f13...daae No, $227
  9. 0x122c...fbed No, $191 (59% win rate)
  10. 0x0380...073d No, $174 (57% win rate)

Related Theses

Neither Chong nor Oh wins

Covers 2 related markets

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

McKinney will replace Thanedar

Covers 2 related markets

Cepeda and Espriella both lose

Covers 2 related markets

Park or Kim wins Gyeongnam

Covers 2 related markets

Panama Croatia corners stay low

Covers 1 related market

Espriella loses Bogotá runoff

Covers 1 related market

Choo wins Daegu mayoral race

Covers 2 related markets

El-Sayed will lose Wayne County

Covers 1 related market

France wins by three plus

Covers 1 related market

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

40dBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District$1,378 tracked1 signalPoliticsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsBrazilElections
Yes
74¢
No
26¢

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Price History — “Yes
82¢
60¢
39¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

4d ago

$1,378 on Yes at 69¢

69¢74¢5¢

Related Theses