Part of: Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
This prediction market tracks whether Flavio Bolsonaro will receive the most valid votes in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election in the Federal District. The market is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026, based on the official vote ranking; ties are settled alphabetically by listed candidate name.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,378.
Categories: Politics, Main Election, Global Elections, Brazil, Elections
Notable Trades
Sharp serial trader buys Brazil election favorite
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate made a large fresh purchase in a thin Brazil election market that has surged 47.5% in one day.
- This bettor wins 82% of 215 resolved trades and is up $1.08 million lifetime.
- The $1,378 purchase represents 58% of the market’s 24-hour volume, despite its wide 11-point spread.
- The Yes price rose 47.5% in one day, corroborating strong recent buying pressure.
$1,378 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,222
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $2,004 (83% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $1,140 (57% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $785 (91% win rate)
- 0xd79a...7e51 — Yes, $695 (63% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — Yes, $520 (91% win rate)
- 0x1f9e...4f1a — Yes, $475 (40% win rate)
- 0x8f13...daae — No, $227
- 0x122c...fbed — No, $191 (59% win rate)
- 0x0380...073d — No, $174 (57% win rate)
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