Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

This prediction market covers whether Fujimori wins the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a margin of 0.2% to 0.3% of valid votes. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official margin between the top two candidates. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,983 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this niche election outcome.

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,983.

Categories: Elections, Peru Election, Global Elections, Peru, Politics

Notable Trades

Sharp profitable niche bettor

Surface because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate and large lifetime profits taking a fresh Yes position in a niche, relatively thin election-margin market.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $294k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 32¢ in a niche Peru election-margin market with only about $9k total volume.
  • The market is thin with a wide spread, so a $2k buy is meaningful even though the position is currently marked down.

$1,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $7,791
  2. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $7,762 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $6,210 (78% win rate)
  4. 0x629b...995a Yes, $1,129 (52% win rate)
  5. 0x40cf...d21d Yes, $1,094 (50% win rate)
  6. 0xb1ca...1705 Yes, $855 (59% win rate)
  7. 0xa5cc...feb0 Yes, $782
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $732 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x9cf6...559d Yes, $684
  10. 0xe904...2d9f Yes, $517

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Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

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Neither Chong nor Oh wins

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Choo wins Daegu mayoral race

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Park or Kim wins Gyeongnam

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Fujimori wins by 0.2–0.3%

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Gallrein defeats Massie in primary

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Becerra or Steyer wins

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Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)$1,983 tracked1 signalElectionsPeru ElectionGlobal ElectionsPeruPolitics
Yes
34¢
No
67¢

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “No
83¢
69¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

4h ago

$1,983 on Yes at 32¢

32¢34¢2¢

Related Theses