Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
This prediction market covers whether Fujimori wins the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a margin of 0.3% to 0.4% of valid votes. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official margin between the top two candidates; recent smart money alerts tracked by PolySpotter have leaned toward No on this narrow-margin outcome.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,215.
Categories: Elections, Peru Election, Global Elections, Peru, Politics
Notable Trades
89% serial cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $212k lifetime.
- They have traded across 104 events and 133 markets, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- The bet is on No at 85¢ in a narrow exact-margin election market.
$1,175 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
89% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% win rate and +$212k lifetime profit bought No on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $212k lifetime.
- They have traded across 104 events and 133 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- They bought No at 70¢ on a niche election-margin market with heavy recent volume.
$1,508 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable election specialist
Sharp profitable wallet with 78% win rate and $294k lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 32¢ while also positioning across related Peru election margin markets.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $294k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 32¢, below the current 35¢ market price.
- They have $3.3k positioned across related Peru election margin markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,363 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable sharp hedging No
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $294k profit is taking a net No position despite some hedging on both sides.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $294k lifetime.
- They put more than twice as much into No as Yes, creating a net bet against this exact margin outcome.
- The market is relatively small, and this $7.1k trade is large versus its liquidity.
$7,114 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
90% winner buys No
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and +$212k P&L bought No on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $212k lifetime.
- They have traded across 104 events and 133 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- A $2.5k No buy is large relative to the market’s $4.6k liquidity.
$2,456 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
90% winner buys NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$212k P&L bought No on a narrow Peru election-margin outcome.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $212k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 103 events and $284k in flagged positioning.
- Buying No at 65¢ means they are fading this very narrow 0.3–0.4% margin outcome.
$2,599 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $88,576
- 0x24b6...e069 — Yes, $13,700
- 0x0720...cc21 — Yes, $10,201
- 0x7f66...908d — Yes, $6,522
- 0x47ab...95df — Yes, $6,000 (74% win rate)
- 0x7fdc...1830 — Yes, $5,700 (100% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — Yes, $3,007 (59% win rate)
- 0xbd72...5a5b — Yes, $1,879
- 0x8281...0ed5 — Yes, $1,767
- 0x765f...1508 — Yes, $1,719 (50% win rate)
Related Theses
Neither Chong nor Oh wins
Covers 2 related markets
Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency
Covers 2 related markets
Ñublense wins on May 29
Covers 1 related market
Starodubtseva beats Fita Boluda
Covers 1 related market
Bournemouth hold City to draw
Covers 1 related market
Chelsea beats Tottenham
Covers 2 related markets
Chelsea leads at halftime
Covers 1 related market
Saint-Etienne Nice stays low-scoring
Covers 1 related market
Flamengo Estudiantes stays low-scoring
Covers 1 related market
Keys will beat Shnaider
Covers 1 related market
