Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
This prediction market covers whether Fujimori wins the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a margin of 0.3% to 0.4% of valid votes. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official margin between the top two candidates; recent smart money alerts tracked by PolySpotter have leaned toward No on this narrow-margin outcome.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,215.
Categories: Elections, Peru Election, Global Elections, Peru, Politics
Notable Trades
89% serial cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $212k lifetime.
- They have traded across 104 events and 133 markets, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- The bet is on No at 85¢ in a narrow exact-margin election market.
$1,175 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
89% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% win rate and +$212k lifetime profit bought No on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $212k lifetime.
- They have traded across 104 events and 133 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- They bought No at 70¢ on a niche election-margin market with heavy recent volume.
$1,508 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable election specialist
Sharp profitable wallet with 78% win rate and $294k lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 32¢ while also positioning across related Peru election margin markets.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $294k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 32¢, below the current 35¢ market price.
- They have $3.3k positioned across related Peru election margin markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$1,363 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable sharp hedging No
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $294k profit is taking a net No position despite some hedging on both sides.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $294k lifetime.
- They put more than twice as much into No as Yes, creating a net bet against this exact margin outcome.
- The market is relatively small, and this $7.1k trade is large versus its liquidity.
$7,114 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
90% winner buys No
A highly proven cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and +$212k P&L bought No on a niche Peru election margin market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $212k lifetime.
- They have traded across 104 events and 133 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- A $2.5k No buy is large relative to the market’s $4.6k liquidity.
$2,456 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
90% winner buys NO
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and +$212k P&L bought No on a narrow Peru election-margin outcome.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $212k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 103 events and $284k in flagged positioning.
- Buying No at 65¢ means they are fading this very narrow 0.3–0.4% margin outcome.
$2,599 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 30354059, $150,686
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 10572776, $45,118 (72% win rate)
- 0xc23d...82c8 — Outcome 10572776, $15,342 (88% win rate)
- 0xa5cc...feb0 — Outcome 10572776, $10,437
- 0x47ab...95df — Outcome 10572776, $6,000 (74% win rate)
- 0x0720...cc21 — Outcome 10572776, $2,701
- 0xebbf...3b77 — Outcome 10572776, $1,985
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 10572776, $1,779
- 0x8281...0ed5 — Outcome 10572776, $1,767
- 0xb274...ad62 — Outcome 10572776, $1,702
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