Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,181.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Peru Election, Peru, rewards 200, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Profitable serial election trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 893 resolved bets and $874k lifetime profit bought Yes into strong recent momentum.
- This bettor has won 69% of 893 resolved bets and is up $874k lifetime.
- They are a highly active cross-market trader, with $1.26M flagged across 107 events.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points this week, and they entered at 79¢.
$1,771 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial political bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $874k lifetime P&L bought Yes on a niche political margin market that has already moved sharply upward.
- This bettor is up $874k lifetime across 893 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active in 107 events with $1.26M tracked volume.
- The market has momentum, with Yes up 12 points today and 15 points this week.
$2,216 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large resolved history is buying Yes on a political margin market at 46¢.
- This bettor has won 69% of 893 resolved trades and is up $874k lifetime.
- They have traded across 106 events and 158 markets, suggesting a broad repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 46¢ follows a 12-point weekly move, implying they still see room for Yes to be underpriced.
$2,827 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
3-wallet Yes surge
High-score one-sided cluster drove a large volume spike and sharp price move into Yes, despite weak wallet track records and a wide spread.
- Three wallets put $12.4K behind the same Yes outcome in a thin, wide-spread market.
- Volume spiked nearly 3,000x versus baseline, and Yes is up about 22 points in the last day.
- The main buyer took nearly $9.7K at 43¢, suggesting conviction before the market moved to around 60¢.
$12,367 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $79,173
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $30,236 (69% win rate)
- 0xa938...bad0 — Yes, $18,185 (0% win rate)
- 0x629b...995a — No, $6,638 (52% win rate)
- 0x7879...822a — Yes, $4,505 (44% win rate)
- 0x24c8...23e1 — No, $4,415 (40% win rate)
- 0x98d0...f14a — Yes, $4,384 (71% win rate)
- 0x4488...e319 — Yes, $4,066 (55% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — Yes, $3,332 (80% win rate)
- 0x88b5...205c — Yes, $2,850 (39% win rate)
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