Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
This Polymarket market asks whether Israel will officially announce another extension or new agreement to continue halting direct military engagement with Hezbollah by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on May 16, 2026. The market resolves after the deadline, with PolySpotter tracking $1,007 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,007.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East
Notable Trades
Breakout buyer faded
A $1k BUY Yes at 85¢ caused a major breakout above the prior observed range on a geopolitics market, but the wallet has no resolved track record and the current price has fallen back to 52¢.
- A bettor paid 85¢ for Yes, far above the current 52¢ market price.
- The trade pushed Yes 34 points beyond its prior observed range, suggesting aggressive conviction.
- This is a geopolitics market near deadline, where news-driven positioning can matter.
$1,007 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 62799595, $25,556 (18% win rate)
- 0x5715...1616 — Outcome 62799595, $6,730 (36% win rate)
- 0x9010...d06f — Outcome 62799595, $5,000
- 0x5a21...9318 — Outcome 62799595, $3,741
- 0xc96e...f1f9 — Outcome 62799595, $3,463 (79% win rate)
- 0x0a2d...5349 — Outcome 62799595, $3,082
- 0x97cb...c910 — Outcome 62799595, $2,307 (0% win rate)
- 0xddf3...bcca — Outcome 62799595, $2,300
- 0x4eef...3fcb — Outcome 53171405, $2,084 (78% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 53171405, $2,000 (38% win rate)
Related Theses
US Iran peace deal imminent
Covers 4 related markets
Israel extends ceasefire soon
Covers 3 related markets
