Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,007.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East
Notable Trades
Breakout buyer faded
A $1k BUY Yes at 85¢ caused a major breakout above the prior observed range on a geopolitics market, but the wallet has no resolved track record and the current price has fallen back to 52¢.
- A bettor paid 85¢ for Yes, far above the current 52¢ market price.
- The trade pushed Yes 34 points beyond its prior observed range, suggesting aggressive conviction.
- This is a geopolitics market near deadline, where news-driven positioning can matter.
$1,007 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Top Holders
- 0x9010...d06f — No, $5,000
- 0x0a2d...5349 — No, $3,082
- 0x97cb...c910 — No, $2,307 (31% win rate)
- 0x81a6...762e — No, $2,000
- 0x7b66...3a93 — No, $1,600
- 0xe661...7816 — No, $1,236
- 0x5e1f...7828 — No, $1,200 (55% win rate)
- 0x8454...331a — No, $584 (90% win rate)
- 0xbff6...db55 — No, $421
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — No, $410 (36% win rate)
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