Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,007.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East
Notable Trades
Breakout buyer faded
A $1k BUY Yes at 85¢ caused a major breakout above the prior observed range on a geopolitics market, but the wallet has no resolved track record and the current price has fallen back to 52¢.
- A bettor paid 85¢ for Yes, far above the current 52¢ market price.
- The trade pushed Yes 34 points beyond its prior observed range, suggesting aggressive conviction.
- This is a geopolitics market near deadline, where news-driven positioning can matter.
$1,007 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0x9010...d06f — Outcome 62799595, $5,000
- 0x0a2d...5349 — Outcome 62799595, $3,082
- 0x97cb...c910 — Outcome 62799595, $2,307 (31% win rate)
- 0x81a6...762e — Outcome 62799595, $2,000
- 0x7b66...3a93 — Outcome 62799595, $1,600
- 0xe661...7816 — Outcome 62799595, $1,236
- 0x5e1f...7828 — Outcome 62799595, $1,200 (44% win rate)
- 0x8454...331a — Outcome 62799595, $584 (91% win rate)
- 0xbff6...db55 — Outcome 62799595, $421
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 62799595, $410 (36% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal before June
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US-Iran meeting by July
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Iran offensive operations will continue
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Fable 5 returns by July 2
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Iran negotiations will not be extended
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US-Iran talks after June 19
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US-Iran deal coming soon
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Israel extends ceasefire soon
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Iran stays in negotiations
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