Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?

This Polymarket market asks whether Israel will officially announce another extension or new agreement to continue halting direct military engagement with Hezbollah by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on May 16, 2026. The market resolves after the deadline, with PolySpotter tracking $1,007 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,007.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East

Notable Trades

Breakout buyer faded

A $1k BUY Yes at 85¢ caused a major breakout above the prior observed range on a geopolitics market, but the wallet has no resolved track record and the current price has fallen back to 52¢.

  • A bettor paid 85¢ for Yes, far above the current 52¢ market price.
  • The trade pushed Yes 34 points beyond its prior observed range, suggesting aggressive conviction.
  • This is a geopolitics market near deadline, where news-driven positioning can matter.

$1,007 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xd519...932c Outcome 62799595, $25,556 (18% win rate)
  2. 0x5715...1616 Outcome 62799595, $6,730 (36% win rate)
  3. 0x9010...d06f Outcome 62799595, $5,000
  4. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 62799595, $3,741
  5. 0xc96e...f1f9 Outcome 62799595, $3,463 (79% win rate)
  6. 0x0a2d...5349 Outcome 62799595, $3,082
  7. 0x97cb...c910 Outcome 62799595, $2,307 (0% win rate)
  8. 0xddf3...bcca Outcome 62799595, $2,300
  9. 0x4eef...3fcb Outcome 53171405, $2,084 (78% win rate)
  10. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 53171405, $2,000 (38% win rate)

Related Theses

US Iran peace deal imminent

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Covers 2 related markets

Israel extends ceasefire soon

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Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?

1dIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?$1,007 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsLebanonHezbollahIsraelMiddle East

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Notable Trades

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?

3h ago

$1,007 on Yes at 85¢

Related Theses