Part of: Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,367.

Categories: Middle East, Litani, Politics, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Israel, Lebanon, Israel x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial geopolitical bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.

This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.5k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 30 events and 43 markets.
The $1.2k No buy was large for this thin market and entered at 70¢ before No moved to 74¢.

$6,267 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial geopolitics trader

Serial cross-market trader with a 71% resolved win rate and +$46.6k P&L bought No on a geopolitical market, with the trade large relative to recent volume.

This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $46.6k lifetime.
They have traded across 52 events and 70 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
The $2.9k No buy was large versus recent volume, and the market has already moved from 75¢ to 78¢.

$2,874 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial geopolitical bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.

This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.5k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 30 events and 43 markets.
The $1.2k No buy was large for this thin market and entered at 70¢ before No moved to 74¢.

$2,036 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial geopolitical bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin geopolitical market, taking meaningful size relative to daily volume and already getting favorable price movement.

This bettor has won 71% of 183 resolved trades and is up $43.5k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 30 events and 43 markets.
The $1.2k No buy was large for this thin market and entered at 70¢ before No moved to 74¢.

$1,189 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

0xcb01...ead3 — Outcome 23694364, $13,031 (6% win rate)
0x9e5d...c928 — Outcome 23694364, $784
0x7d58...cfcc — Outcome 23694364, $741 (58% win rate)
0xc040...beac — Outcome 23694364, $672 (52% win rate)
0x382f...42a9 — Outcome 23694364, $574
0x7690...c04f — Outcome 23694364, $547
0xee8a...f0b0 — Outcome 23694364, $535
0x5bb7...6f64 — Outcome 23694364, $532 (24% win rate)
0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 23694364, $522
0x0777...4b7f — Outcome 23694364, $399

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Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

ResolvedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?$12,367 tracked4 signalsMiddle EastLitaniPoliticsRewards 50, 4.5, 20IsraelLebanonIsrael x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Price History — “No”

101¢

98¢

96¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction