A bettor who wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $71K bought No for $2,500 at 25¢. Four wallets all moved the same way, putting $6.1K behind No as the market rapidly repriced. The trade already moved hard to 99¢ No, so the original edge was at much lower prices.

Part of: Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,160.

Categories: World, Elections, Global Elections, Politics, Colombia Election, Colombia

Notable Trades

Sharp-led No sweep

Coordinated No buying was led by a proven profitable wallet and coincided with a massive repricing from Yes-heavy odds to No at 99¢.

A bettor who wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $71K bought No for $2,500 at 25¢.
Four wallets all moved the same way, putting $6.1K behind No as the market rapidly repriced.
The trade already moved hard to 99¢ No, so the original edge was at much lower prices.

$6,104 on No

Profitable sharp flips to NO

Profitable 79% winner with $28k lifetime P&L is making a fresh No bet after closing a prior Yes position on a liquid Colombian election market.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $28,060 lifetime.
They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying No, signaling a view change.
Entry at 25¢ implies they see a roughly 4x payout opportunity if Cepeda does not win the first round.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

83% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 83% resolved win rate with positive P&L and just bought $5.4k of Yes in a plausible political market.

This bettor has won 83% of resolved trades and is up $809 lifetime.
They put $5.4k on Yes at 79¢, adding meaningful conviction in a liquid political market.
Entry at 79¢ implies they are backing Cepeda as the clear first-round leader.

$5,414 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

86% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate and +$380,624 lifetime P&L bought Yes on a long-dated Colombian election market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $380,624 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 36 events and 74 markets, with $506,656 flagged in related positioning.
Buying at 78¢ suggests they still see value despite the market already pricing Cepeda as the favorite.

$3,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

1-day-old election whale

A 1-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing large bets, adding a $9.9k Yes position on a plausibly information-sensitive Colombian election market.

A brand-new wallet has already placed 3 large flagged bets totaling $19.7k.
This trade put $9.9k on Yes at 75¢ in a political market where local information could matter.
The market is active but not huge, and Yes is up 6 points today despite being down over the week.

$9,900 on Yes

Brand-new political whale

Brand-new wallet deployed $5k on a Colombian election market and has nearly $9.8k in repeat flagged bets within minutes, suggesting early high-conviction political positioning.

A wallet less than 30 minutes old bought $5,000 of Yes, signaling immediate conviction.
This is its second large flagged bet, with about $9,790 total already deployed.
The market is liquid but political, where informed early positioning can matter.

$5,000 on Yes

91% winner buys favorite

Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because this is a proven profitable wallet with a 91% record adding a $1.5k Yes position in a political market.

This bettor has won 91% of 307 resolved trades and is up $54k lifetime.
They bought $1.5k of Yes at 87¢, backing the current favorite with proven track record behind it.
The trade is about 20% of recent daily volume, so it is meaningful for this market’s activity.

$1,499 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

81% winner cross-market buyer

Sharp high-volume bettor with an 81% historical hit rate is adding a fresh Yes position across related Colombian election markets despite modest recent drift lower.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades across 220 bets, making the wallet worth following despite lifetime P&L being negative.
They bought $3.6K of Yes at 87¢ after previously closing a cheaper Yes position, signaling fresh conviction rather than simple profit-taking.
The wallet has put $10.3K across 2 related election markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this race.

$3,625 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 14091653, $502,808
0x5482...b6ee — Outcome 97787606, $33,847
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 97787606, $33,596 (86% win rate)
0xd3a6...fd55 — Outcome 97787606, $21,535 (41% win rate)
0xcd0c...ca5a — Outcome 97787606, $20,273
0x76f9...f701 — Outcome 97787606, $18,844 (61% win rate)
0x54cb...d1e7 — Outcome 97787606, $10,117
0x784f...5df9 — Outcome 97787606, $7,000 (86% win rate)
0x2aaf...4956 — Outcome 97787606, $5,926
0x6adf...8384 — Outcome 97787606, $5,551

Related Theses

Keiko Fujimori wins presidency

Covers 4 related markets

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Neither Chong nor Oh wins

Covers 2 related markets

Sánchez Palomino won't win

Covers 14 related markets

Cepeda wins first round

Covers 2 related markets

Espriella loses Colombian election

Covers 16 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Resolved Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?$37,160 tracked8 signalsWorldElectionsGlobal ElectionsPoliticsColombia ElectionColombia

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).