Part of: LA Mayoral Election: Who will advance to the 2nd round?
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,442.
Categories: Elections, US Election, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, Los Angeles, Politics, LA Mayor
Notable Trades
Sharp politics bettor buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved win rate bought Yes into a high-volume spike on a politics market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $79.8K lifetime.
- Market volume spiked nearly 70x, with over $43K traded in the past day.
- Entry at 26¢ implies roughly a 3.8x payout if this runoff pairing happens.
$1,821 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
88% serial politics bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate bought No during a major volume spike on a political market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $97k lifetime.
- They have traded across 279 events with $1.36M total deployed, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Market volume spiked 260x above normal as they bought No at 81¢.
$1,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% winner buying No
Surface this: a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate and positive lifetime P&L put $11.2k on No amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 1,355 bets and is up $97k lifetime.
- They put $11.2k on No in four quick buys at 81¢, a large position for this market.
- Market volume spiked 856x versus its normal pace, suggesting unusual attention around this outcome.
$11,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $24,440
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $17,591 (85% win rate)
- 0xd870...8a7e — No, $14,087 (88% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $8,162 (57% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $7,548 (81% win rate)
- 0x47ae...ee94 — No, $5,532 (72% win rate)
- 0xd109...6fa0 — Yes, $5,028 (70% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $4,570 (75% win rate)
- 0x92e5...efee — Yes, $3,743 (50% win rate)
- 0x364f...1515 — No, $3,305
Related Theses
Knicks beat the Cavaliers
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