What is the prediction market for Karen Bass in 2026?

It is a market on whether Karen Bass will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. The market resolves to the candidate who ultimately wins the election.

When is the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026. If no candidate receives a majority, Los Angeles will hold a runoff election on November 3, 2026.

How does this Karen Bass Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves according to the eventual winning candidate, using a consensus of credible reporting and, if needed, official election information to settle any ambiguity.

What are smart-money traders signaling about Karen Bass?

The available smart-money alerts include several traders and a funded wallet cluster fading the Yes outcome, suggesting bearish positioning on a Karen Bass victory. These signals can change as new information and trading activity emerge.

When will the Karen Bass 2026 mayor market be finalized?

The market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, after the election or any required runoff has produced a confirmed result.

Part of: Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

This prediction market asks whether Karen Bass will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Voting is scheduled for June 2, 2026, with a runoff on November 3 if no candidate wins a majority; the market resolves based on the eventual election winner. Current smart-money alerts include multiple signals fading the Yes outcome, while the displayed market odds are subject to change.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

22 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,177.

Categories: mayor, Politics, US Election, Elections, Los Angeles, Mayoral Elections, LA, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, LA Mayor, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A profitable serial cross-market trader with 442 resolved bets is adding $4,000 to an existing No position at 36¢, while the trade represents 67% of recent 24-hour volume.

This bettor has won 73% of 442 resolved trades and is up $508,709 lifetime.
They are adding $4,000 to an existing No position at 36¢, signaling increased conviction.
The trade represents roughly 67% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume despite a liquid overall market.

$5,331 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A profitable serial cross-market trader with 442 resolved bets is adding $4,000 to an existing No position at 36¢, while the trade represents 67% of recent 24-hour volume.

This bettor has won 73% of 442 resolved trades and is up $508,709 lifetime.
They are adding $4,000 to an existing No position at 36¢, signaling increased conviction.
The trade represents roughly 67% of the market’s recent 24-hour volume despite a liquid overall market.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a $5k Yes position while also trading another market in the same election event.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $257k lifetime.
They have put $15.9k across 2 markets in this same election event, suggesting a broader LA mayoral thesis.
Entry at 61¢ is close to the market price, with Bass odds ticking up slightly over the past day and week.

$12,071 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Seven-wallet funded cluster backs No

Seven wallets sharing a funder are concentrating roughly $5,146 on No in a relatively thin market, though the featured wallet is adding to an existing position rather than making a fresh bet.

Seven wallets linked to one funder are collectively betting about $5,146 on No.
The featured wallet is increasing an existing No position, with $3,912 already invested at a 35¢ average.
The 36¢ entry is attractive only if the coordinated group’s thesis is right; the market has modest 24-hour volume of about $6,000.

$5,146 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a $5k Yes position while also trading another market in the same election event.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $257k lifetime.
They have put $15.9k across 2 markets in this same election event, suggesting a broader LA mayoral thesis.
Entry at 61¢ is close to the market price, with Bass odds ticking up slightly over the past day and week.

$6,181 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a $5k Yes position while also trading another market in the same election event.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $257k lifetime.
They have put $15.9k across 2 markets in this same election event, suggesting a broader LA mayoral thesis.
Entry at 61¢ is close to the market price, with Bass odds ticking up slightly over the past day and week.

$4,480 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

97% winner fading favorite

Surfaced despite weak alert score because the wallet has an exceptional 97% resolved-bet win rate and over $1M lifetime profit, and is betting against Karen Bass at 40¢ equivalent.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved bets and is up about $1.05M lifetime.
They sold Karen Bass Yes at 60¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
The wallet has been flagged 9 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off trade.

$1,519 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

98% winner fading incumbent

A highly profitable 98% win-rate serial cross-market trader is fading Karen Bass by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up about $858k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 127 events and over $1.0M traded.
Selling Yes at 60¢ means they are effectively buying No at 40¢ on the 2026 mayoral race.

$2,275 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Profitable serial political trader

Proven profitable political trader with a 75% long-run win rate is taking the No side against Karen Bass via a Yes sale.

This bettor has won 75% of 1,068 resolved trades and is up $183K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 168 events and $1.7M in volume.
Selling Yes at 61¢ converts to buying No at 39¢, implying a bet that Bass is overpriced.

$1,225 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Sharp serial trader fading Yes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and +$182k lifetime P&L is fading Karen Bass by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 33¢.

This bettor has won 75% of 1,067 resolved bets and is up $182k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M deployed across 262 related markets.
Selling Yes at 67¢ is effectively buying No at 33¢, betting the market is too confident in Bass.

$1,847 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — No, $195,766
0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $120,830 (90% win rate)
0x9648...6825 — Yes, $66,742 (70% win rate)
0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $55,901 (80% win rate)
0xd218...b5c9 — No, $38,909 (49% win rate)
0x629b...995a — No, $33,407 (53% win rate)
0x3c59...1766 — No, $25,564 (73% win rate)
0xde04...fa37 — Yes, $24,993 (49% win rate)
0x6404...f250 — No, $18,794 (69% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $17,305 (82% win rate)

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

99dLos Angeles Mayoral Election$74,177 tracked22 signalsmayorPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsLos AngelesMayoral ElectionsLALos Angeles Mayoral ElectionLA MayorRewards 50, 4.5, 100

Yes

41¢

60¢

Yes

41¢

60¢

Price History — “No”

61¢

47¢

34¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction