Part of: Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

17 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,449.

Categories: mayor, Politics, US Election, Elections, Los Angeles, Mayoral Elections, LA, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, LA Mayor, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

Sharp cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a $5k Yes position while also trading another market in the same election event.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $257k lifetime.
They have put $15.9k across 2 markets in this same election event, suggesting a broader LA mayoral thesis.
Entry at 61¢ is close to the market price, with Bass odds ticking up slightly over the past day and week.

$4,480 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

97% winner fading favorite

Surfaced despite weak alert score because the wallet has an exceptional 97% resolved-bet win rate and over $1M lifetime profit, and is betting against Karen Bass at 40¢ equivalent.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved bets and is up about $1.05M lifetime.
They sold Karen Bass Yes at 60¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 40¢.
The wallet has been flagged 9 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off trade.

$1,519 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

98% winner fading incumbent

A highly profitable 98% win-rate serial cross-market trader is fading Karen Bass by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 40¢.

This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up about $858k lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 127 events and over $1.0M traded.
Selling Yes at 60¢ means they are effectively buying No at 40¢ on the 2026 mayoral race.

$2,275 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable serial political trader

Proven profitable political trader with a 75% long-run win rate is taking the No side against Karen Bass via a Yes sale.

This bettor has won 75% of 1,068 resolved trades and is up $183K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 168 events and $1.7M in volume.
Selling Yes at 61¢ converts to buying No at 39¢, implying a bet that Bass is overpriced.

$1,225 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Sharp serial trader fading Yes

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and +$182k lifetime P&L is fading Karen Bass by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 33¢.

This bettor has won 75% of 1,067 resolved bets and is up $182k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M deployed across 262 related markets.
Selling Yes at 67¢ is effectively buying No at 33¢, betting the market is too confident in Bass.

$1,847 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

79% winner exits Yes

A profitable 79% win-rate wallet is moving across two markets in the LA mayoral event and just sold Bass Yes, effectively leaning toward No despite this being an exit from a prior Yes position.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $17,894 lifetime.
They have $28,448 positioned across two markets in the same election event.
Selling Bass Yes at 68¢ after entering around 71¢ suggests they are cutting exposure as the market moves against her.

$5,042 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

98% win-rate political sharp

Elite political/cross-market bettor with a 98% resolved win rate and $783k lifetime profit bought Bass Yes after a sharp 1-day price drop.

This bettor wins 98% of resolved bets and is up $783k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 108 events, with $860k tracked volume.
They bought Yes at 68¢ after the market fell 15 points in 24 hours.

$1,425 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% win rate is adding a Yes position as part of a larger cross-market thesis on the LA mayoral election.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $18,098 lifetime.
They have put $24,550 across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
Entry at 69¢ implies they still see value despite Bass already being the favorite.

$1,144 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial event bettor

A highly proven cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate over 1,065 resolved bets and $183k profit bought $5.3k of Bass Yes.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,065 bets and is up $183k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 167 events with $1.7M total tracked volume.
The $5.3k Yes buy came after a sharp 1-day move, suggesting they still see Bass as underpriced.

$5,295 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long track record is buying Bass Yes at 68¢, though the trade size is modest in a liquid market.

This bettor wins 69% of resolved trades and is up about $806k lifetime.
They have traded across 151 markets in 103 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
Entry at 68¢ implies they still see value despite Bass already being the favorite.

$1,064 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — No, $163,948
0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $72,297 (88% win rate)
0xde04...fa37 — Yes, $24,993 (49% win rate)
0xd218...b5c9 — No, $13,639 (50% win rate)
0x7e59...7b8b — Yes, $11,376 (47% win rate)
0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $10,375 (67% win rate)
0xb2c1...4cf3 — Yes, $9,817 (100% win rate)
0x1c14...0869 — No, $9,694 (64% win rate)
0x6967...84bf — Yes, $9,555 (93% win rate)
0xb582...889c — Yes, $8,822 (97% win rate)

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

ResolvedLos Angeles Mayoral Election$41,449 tracked17 signalsmayorPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsLos AngelesMayoral ElectionsLALos Angeles Mayoral ElectionLA MayorRewards 50, 4.5, 100

Yes

67¢

34¢

Yes

67¢

34¢

Price History — “Yes”

68¢

65¢

61¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction