Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether Katie Porter will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Traders use it to estimate her chances in real time as campaign news, polling, and election developments shift the odds. The market resolves based on the candidate called the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a fallback resolution to “Other” if the race is still not confirmed by July 31, 2027.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,195.
Categories: Elections, US Election, Politics, Governor midterms, California Midterm
Notable Trades
88% win-rate political bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Katie Porter Yes at 9¢, making this a notable long-shot political position worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime.
- They trade across 117 markets and 70 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Bought Yes at 9¢, a cheap long-shot entry in a major political market that has already risen over the past week.
$1,195 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $38,835
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $14,116 (88% win rate)
- 0xce14...e38f — Yes, $4,850
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $2,583
- 0x33f8...c5e4 — Yes, $2,428
- 0x1f9e...4f1a — Yes, $2,136
- 0x3413...a359 — No, $2,036
- 0xa5e3...4d7e — Yes, $1,785 (42% win rate)
- 0x7ac8...77cd — Yes, $1,597
- 0x6291...cc47 — Yes, $1,313
