Part of: which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,833.

Categories: Global Elections, World, Brazil, Politics

Notable Trades

86% winner buying Yes

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and nearly $489k profit bought Yes in a quiet market where the trade exceeded 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $489k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with 31 events and $1.6M in prior volume.
  • This buy was more than 2x the market’s 24h volume, suggesting strong conviction in a quiet period.

$1,833 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb886...81b3 No, $8,523 (54% win rate)
  2. 0x238d...70d8 Yes, $8,503
  3. 0xc46f...3130 Yes, $6,903
  4. 0x1229...df38 Yes, $6,490 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xf73c...e7cf Yes, $5,949
  6. 0xd19e...6184 No, $5,497
  7. 0x9667...9a34 No, $4,837
  8. 0x6c10...df5c Yes, $4,609 (65% win rate)
  9. 0xc0bf...b4cd No, $4,025
  10. 0xbacd...ab35 No, $3,857 (48% win rate)

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

109dwhich-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff$1,833 tracked1 signalGlobal ElectionsWorldBrazilPolitics
Yes
86¢
No
14¢

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Price History — “Yes
88¢
83¢
79¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

2h ago

$1,833 on Yes at 86¢

86¢86¢

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