Part of: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,781.
Categories: Brazil, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Global Elections
Notable Trades
Three-wallet No re-entry
Three wallets simultaneously reopened No positions with $5,147 in buys, reinforcing prior No exposure on a liquid election market.
- Three wallets bought No at 72¢ in the same second, totaling about $5,147.
- All three had previously invested in No on this market, then closed those positions before buying again.
- One trader has a 71% record across 2,808 resolved bets, though their high average winning price makes that record less conclusive as an edge signal.
$4,766 on No
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 81% record bought Yes at 30¢, and the market has since risen to 40¢.
- This bettor has won 81% of 347 resolved markets and is up $1.79M overall.
- They put $3,015 on Yes at 30¢—more than the market’s 24-hour volume—and the price has since risen to 40¢.
- The wallet has traded across 103 events, suggesting a sustained, active track record.
$3,015 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $190,933
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $10,000 (73% win rate)
- 0x8de0...7f22 — No, $5,866
- 0x1cfc...2111 — No, $5,082
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — No, $3,173
- 0x9727...44e4 — No, $1,000
- 0x225b...422a — No, $333 (60% win rate)
- 0x60de...60d2 — No, $282
- 0x30fb...7db4 — No, $242
- 0x7039...4a7d — No, $164
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