Part of: María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,034.

Categories: Trump-Machado, Politics, Trump, Venezuela

Notable Trades

76% winner cross-market thesis

A highly profitable 76% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history is buying No as part of a larger $36k event-level thesis.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $426k lifetime.
They have traded 4 related markets in this event, totaling $36k of exposure.
Buying No at 65¢ suggests a high-conviction view against Machado entering Venezuela by the deadline.

$1,349 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

76% winner cross-market thesis

A highly profitable 76% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history is buying No as part of a larger $36k event-level thesis.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $426k lifetime.
They have traded 4 related markets in this event, totaling $36k of exposure.
Buying No at 65¢ suggests a high-conviction view against Machado entering Venezuela by the deadline.

$1,228 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Serial cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and +$447k lifetime P&L bought No on a Venezuela politics market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $447k lifetime.
They have traded across 40 events and 81 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Bought No at 67¢ on a political market where informed views may matter.

$1,005 on No | Wallet win rate: 44%

86% serial cross-market winner

Surfacing because a highly experienced cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a politically sensitive market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,278 markets and is up $64K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.2M flagged across 153 events, suggesting a repeatable research process.
The $4.6K No buy is meaningful versus the market’s $25K 24h volume.

$1,305 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

86% serial cross-market winner

Surfacing because a highly experienced cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a politically sensitive market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,278 markets and is up $64K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.2M flagged across 153 events, suggesting a repeatable research process.
The $4.6K No buy is meaningful versus the market’s $25K 24h volume.

$4,573 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

86% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $311k lifetime profit bought Yes despite only modest market movement.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $311k lifetime.
They have traded 44 markets across 33 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Entry at 43¢ implies they see Yes as mispriced with about 2.3x upside if correct.

$1,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with a long 63% record is adding Yes exposure across related Machado/Venezuela markets in a thin, fast-moving market.

This bettor has 754 resolved trades with a 63% win record and slight lifetime profit.
They have put about $10k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Venezuela/Machado thesis.
This $1.5k Yes buy is meaningful in a thin market with only $4.6k liquidity and a 20-point daily move.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 62783908, $15,189 (43% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 62783908, $12,186 (82% win rate)
0x3822...b720 — Outcome 62783908, $10,042 (37% win rate)
0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 62783908, $9,777 (67% win rate)
0x8a55...5126 — Outcome 62783908, $3,131
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 62783908, $2,000 (49% win rate)
0x2b9d...adc0 — Outcome 62783908, $1,603 (53% win rate)
0x1994...b4e5 — Outcome 62783908, $1,440
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 62783908, $1,373
0x1f66...4c8d — Outcome 62783908, $1,320 (56% win rate)

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Bitcoin dips to $60K, not $50K

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Espriella loses Colombian election

Covers 16 related markets

Iran peace deal timing arbitrage

Covers 6 related markets

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

ResolvedMaría Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?$12,034 tracked7 signalsTrump-MachadoPoliticsTrumpVenezuela

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”

102¢

96¢

89¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction