What does the Nigel Farage Clacton prediction market measure?

It measures whether Nigel Farage wins between 60% and 70% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

How will this Clacton election market resolve?

The market resolves according to Nigel Farage’s reported share of valid votes. If the result falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket.

When will the Nigel Farage Clacton market resolve?

The scheduled resolution date is June 30, 2027, at 23:59 UTC, subject to the exchange’s stated resolution rules.

What are the current Polymarket odds for Nigel Farage winning 60–70%?

The supplied market metadata does not include a live Yes or No price. Check the market page for the latest prediction market odds.

How much smart money is being tracked in this market?

PolySpotter tracks $31,610 in smart money across five signals, including activity involving Yes positions, No clusters, and hedging.

Part of: Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

This prediction market asks whether Nigel Farage will receive between 60% and 70% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. It resolves based on the official vote share, with an exact boundary resolving to the higher bracket, and is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027. The market has $31,610 in tracked smart money across five signals; live Yes/No prices were not included in the supplied metadata.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $56,901.

Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, United Kingdom, UK By-Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling a hedge

A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to both sides of a heavily surging market alongside two linked wallets, making this notable but directionally hedged.

This bettor has won 92% of 24 resolved positions and earned about $197,000 in realized profit.
Three wallets sharing a funder committed $3,378 while market volume surged 66.7 times its historical average.
The trader is adding to both Yes and No positions, so the activity signals conviction in the market rather than a clean directional bet.

$3,378 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Sharp bettor adds to Yes position

A proven, highly profitable bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position, though the simultaneous large No purchase makes the overall thesis mixed.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $242,742 lifetime.
They added roughly $5,000 of Yes exposure at 40–44¢ while the market rose to 50¢.
A large $6,728 No purchase and the existing Yes position make the trader's net view less clear.

$9,632 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp bettor hedging Clacton range

A highly profitable bettor with an 89% win rate made a sizable but hedged position, making the activity worth monitoring despite limited directional clarity.

This bettor has won 89% of 36 resolved trades and earned $242,742 in P&L.
They added $2,112 to Yes at 40¢ while already holding a $34,512 Yes position, signaling continued interest in the range.
The simultaneous $6,728 No purchase at 90¢ looks like hedging rather than a clean directional bet, so the copy signal is weaker.

$5,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

92% bettor in funded No cluster

A highly profitable 92% win-rate bettor is adding to No alongside two linked wallets, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite existing positions on both sides.

This bettor has won 92% of 24 resolved trades and earned $197,239 in profit.
Three wallets sharing a funder have committed $1,818 to No, adding coordinated conviction.
The wallet is adding No to an existing position, though its simultaneous Yes exposure makes the overall thesis partly hedged.

$1,818 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Sharp bettor adds to Yes position

A proven, highly profitable bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position, though the simultaneous large No purchase makes the overall thesis mixed.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $242,742 lifetime.
They added roughly $5,000 of Yes exposure at 40–44¢ while the market rose to 50¢.
A large $6,728 No purchase and the existing Yes position make the trader's net view less clear.

$11,754 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

92% winner leads linked No cluster

A proven 92% win-rate bettor is adding to a No position alongside two linked wallets, creating a meaningful coordinated view despite existing hedges.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $197,239, with a 32-point edge over average implied odds.
Three linked wallets committed $7,828 to No, including the sharp bettor adding near 61¢.
The No position is gaining support while the market still prices it at roughly 56%, leaving room if the cluster is right.

$7,828 on No

Sharp bettor hedging Clacton range

A highly profitable bettor with an 89% win rate made a sizable but hedged position, making the activity worth monitoring despite limited directional clarity.

This bettor has won 89% of 36 resolved trades and earned $242,742 in P&L.
They added $2,112 to Yes at 40¢ while already holding a $34,512 Yes position, signaling continued interest in the range.
The simultaneous $6,728 No purchase at 90¢ looks like hedging rather than a clean directional bet, so the copy signal is weaker.

$8,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

New whale scaling into No

A brand-new wallet has repeatedly built a substantial No position, with the latest $3,793 addition contributing to a roughly $15,800 stake and a favorable price move.

This wallet is less than two hours old yet has committed about $15,800 to No on this market.
It added another $3,793 to No at 75¢, while No has since risen to roughly 81¢.
The wallet has made four positions across three related markets, suggesting a broader coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$3,793 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale scaling into No

A very new wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful capital, including a large No position that adds to an existing $15,797 stake, though the lack of track record and conflicting Yes bet reduce conviction.

A wallet only 1.5 hours old has already made four positions and flagged $6,135 across repeated large bets.
The trader bought No at 75¢ and already holds $15,797 of No at an 86¢ average entry, showing substantial directional exposure.
The signal is weaker because the same wallet also bought $1,037 of Yes and has no resolved trading history.

$4,830 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %$56,901 tracked9 signalsUKClactonPoliticsElectionsUnited KingdomUK By-ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

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