Part of: Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
This prediction market asks whether Nigel Farage will receive between 60% and 70% of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. It resolves based on the official vote share, with an exact boundary resolving to the higher bracket, and is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027. The market has $31,610 in tracked smart money across five signals; live Yes/No prices were not included in the supplied metadata.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $56,901.
Categories: UK, Clacton, Politics, Elections, United Kingdom, UK By-Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor scaling a hedge
A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to both sides of a heavily surging market alongside two linked wallets, making this notable but directionally hedged.
- This bettor has won 92% of 24 resolved positions and earned about $197,000 in realized profit.
- Three wallets sharing a funder committed $3,378 while market volume surged 66.7 times its historical average.
- The trader is adding to both Yes and No positions, so the activity signals conviction in the market rather than a clean directional bet.
$3,378 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A proven, highly profitable bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position, though the simultaneous large No purchase makes the overall thesis mixed.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $242,742 lifetime.
- They added roughly $5,000 of Yes exposure at 40–44¢ while the market rose to 50¢.
- A large $6,728 No purchase and the existing Yes position make the trader's net view less clear.
$9,632 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp bettor hedging Clacton range
A highly profitable bettor with an 89% win rate made a sizable but hedged position, making the activity worth monitoring despite limited directional clarity.
- This bettor has won 89% of 36 resolved trades and earned $242,742 in P&L.
- They added $2,112 to Yes at 40¢ while already holding a $34,512 Yes position, signaling continued interest in the range.
- The simultaneous $6,728 No purchase at 90¢ looks like hedging rather than a clean directional bet, so the copy signal is weaker.
$5,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
92% bettor in funded No cluster
A highly profitable 92% win-rate bettor is adding to No alongside two linked wallets, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite existing positions on both sides.
- This bettor has won 92% of 24 resolved trades and earned $197,239 in profit.
- Three wallets sharing a funder have committed $1,818 to No, adding coordinated conviction.
- The wallet is adding No to an existing position, though its simultaneous Yes exposure makes the overall thesis partly hedged.
$1,818 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A proven, highly profitable bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position, though the simultaneous large No purchase makes the overall thesis mixed.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $242,742 lifetime.
- They added roughly $5,000 of Yes exposure at 40–44¢ while the market rose to 50¢.
- A large $6,728 No purchase and the existing Yes position make the trader's net view less clear.
$11,754 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
92% winner leads linked No cluster
A proven 92% win-rate bettor is adding to a No position alongside two linked wallets, creating a meaningful coordinated view despite existing hedges.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $197,239, with a 32-point edge over average implied odds.
- Three linked wallets committed $7,828 to No, including the sharp bettor adding near 61¢.
- The No position is gaining support while the market still prices it at roughly 56%, leaving room if the cluster is right.
$7,828 on No
Sharp bettor hedging Clacton range
A highly profitable bettor with an 89% win rate made a sizable but hedged position, making the activity worth monitoring despite limited directional clarity.
- This bettor has won 89% of 36 resolved trades and earned $242,742 in P&L.
- They added $2,112 to Yes at 40¢ while already holding a $34,512 Yes position, signaling continued interest in the range.
- The simultaneous $6,728 No purchase at 90¢ looks like hedging rather than a clean directional bet, so the copy signal is weaker.
$8,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
New whale scaling into No
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly built a substantial No position, with the latest $3,793 addition contributing to a roughly $15,800 stake and a favorable price move.
- This wallet is less than two hours old yet has committed about $15,800 to No on this market.
- It added another $3,793 to No at 75¢, while No has since risen to roughly 81¢.
- The wallet has made four positions across three related markets, suggesting a broader coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$3,793 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale scaling into No
A very new wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful capital, including a large No position that adds to an existing $15,797 stake, though the lack of track record and conflicting Yes bet reduce conviction.
- A wallet only 1.5 hours old has already made four positions and flagged $6,135 across repeated large bets.
- The trader bought No at 75¢ and already holds $15,797 of No at an 86¢ average entry, showing substantial directional exposure.
- The signal is weaker because the same wallet also bought $1,037 of Yes and has no resolved trading history.
$4,830 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xe7b3...2b3a — Outcome 60521816, $350,594 (100% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 60521816, $46,097
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 60521816, $1,066
- 0x56c2...6219 — Outcome 60521816, $1,000
- 0x3879...d8c3 — Outcome 60521816, $1,000
- 0x9a8d...dbba — Outcome 60521816, $539
- 0xb858...21a9 — Outcome 60521816, $503
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 60521816, $403
- 0xfcdb...c4ee — Outcome 60521816, $390 (66% win rate)
- 0x29fe...22cf — Outcome 60521816, $323
Related Theses
Peru elects right-wing president
Covers 3 related markets
Neither party controls Senate
Covers 2 related markets
Karen Bass will win reelection
Covers 2 related markets
No Democratic Senate-Republican House split
Covers 3 related markets
Republicans will win Ohio Senate
Covers 2 related markets
Democrats take the House
Covers 2 related markets
Farage wins 60–70% in Clacton
Covers 2 related markets
Farage wins over 80% in Clacton
Covers 3 related markets
Farage wins 60–70% in Clacton
Covers 2 related markets
Wesley Bell will defeat Cori Bush
Covers 2 related markets