Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
23 signals across 3 markets · $208,696 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2027
This Polymarket event tracks Nigel Farage’s vote-share outcome in the expected Clacton parliamentary by-election, with trading focused on whether he lands in the 70–80% valid-vote bracket. PolySpotter has tracked $2,755 in smart money activity on the event, including a signal from a profitable serial event trader.
Markets (3)
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?6 signals · $77,089 tracked
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?8 signals · $74,707 tracked
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?9 signals · $56,901 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 92% winner leads linked No cluster
A proven 92% win-rate bettor is adding to a No position alongside two linked wallets, creating a meaningful coordinated view despite existing hedges.
$7,828Score: 9.4 - Sharp bettor scaling a hedge
A highly profitable bettor with a 92% win rate is adding to both sides of a heavily surging market alongside two linked wallets, making this notable but directionally hedged.
$3,378Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 8.8 - 92% bettor in funded No cluster
A highly profitable 92% win-rate bettor is adding to No alongside two linked wallets, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite existing positions on both sides.
$1,818Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 8.7 - Six-wallet funded cluster backs No
Six linked wallets and a consistently active trader are backing No, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the modest position size.
$1,720Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.5 - Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A proven, highly profitable bettor is adding to a substantial Yes position, though the simultaneous large No purchase makes the overall thesis mixed.
$9,632Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 6.1 - Whale scaling into No
A large existing holder added nearly $38,000 to No amid an extreme volume spike and broader three-market positioning, signaling meaningful conviction despite no proven track record.
$37,904Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.8 - New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
$27,033Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.3 - Three-wallet bullish Clacton cluster
Three wallets committed nearly $7.9K to Yes, with the coordinated flow coinciding with a 45.5% one-day price surge despite mixed bettor quality.
$7,889Score: 5.3 - New whale scaling into Yes
A very new wallet is repeatedly adding to a substantial Yes position, with the market up roughly 26% in the past week despite no proven trading record.
$25,434Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 5.2 - Proven serial bettor buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 83% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a contrarian $4,354 position on No.
$4,354Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 4.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe7b354…2b3a$142,402 · 3 markets · 11 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x1fee90…ed5e$35,253 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x4c8cdc…e36f$5,197 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x23d81b…0288$4,354 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x6139c4…6b7a$2,755 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$1,720 · 1 market · 1 alert · 66% wins
- 0x122cb9…fbed$1,298 · 1 market · 1 alert · 60% wins
FAQs
What are the odds on Nigel Farage’s Clacton by-election vote share?
The event’s odds reflect the market-implied probability that Farage’s share of valid votes falls into the listed bracket, currently focused on the 70–80% range. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket pricing and smart money positioning as traders update their views.
What outcome is being traded in this Clacton by-election market?
This event covers Nigel Farage’s share of valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. The listed child market asks whether he will win between 70% and 80% of valid votes.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has identified $2,755 in tracked smart money activity across the event, including a recent signal from a profitable serial event trader. These signals can help users see whether experienced wallets are taking a position on the vote-share bracket.
When will the Clacton by-election Farage vote-share market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by June 30, 2027, based on the reported share of valid votes Nigel Farage receives in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
How does this Polymarket event resolve if the vote share is on a bracket boundary?
According to the market rules, if Farage’s reported vote share falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket.