Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,700.

Categories: Politics, Elections, World, United Kingdom, Global Elections, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Profitable serial politics trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a niche UK politics market, though the stake is modest and there is little market momentum.

  • This bettor has 809 resolved bets, a 68% hit rate, and about $791K in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 events and 112 markets.
  • Entry at 76¢ suggests they see Reform not winning the most seats as the safer side.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $12,775
  2. 0x4c8c...e36f Yes, $4,807
  3. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $2,250 (68% win rate)
  4. 0x7b17...51b1 Yes, $2,088
  5. 0x9826...e7fe No, $1,455
  6. 0xbd14...76b4 Yes, $1,223 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $1,215 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x9163...82ae Yes, $1,040
  9. 0x1bdd...31ac Yes, $817
  10. 0x1970...398d Yes, $792

Related Theses

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Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

1d$1,700 tracked1 signalPoliticsElectionsWorldUnited KingdomGlobal ElectionsMain ElectionRewards 200, 4.5, 50
Yes
24¢
No
76¢

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).

Price History — “No
82¢
77¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

3h ago

$1,700 on No at 76¢

76¢76¢

Related Theses