Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,700.
Categories: Politics, Elections, World, United Kingdom, Global Elections, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable serial politics trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a niche UK politics market, though the stake is modest and there is little market momentum.
- This bettor has 809 resolved bets, a 68% hit rate, and about $791K in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 75 events and 112 markets.
- Entry at 76¢ suggests they see Reform not winning the most seats as the safer side.
$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $12,775
- 0x4c8c...e36f — Yes, $4,807
- 0xecaa...77a9 — No, $2,250 (68% win rate)
- 0x7b17...51b1 — Yes, $2,088
- 0x9826...e7fe — No, $1,455
- 0xbd14...76b4 — Yes, $1,223 (48% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $1,215 (100% win rate)
- 0x9163...82ae — Yes, $1,040
- 0x1bdd...31ac — Yes, $817
- 0x1970...398d — Yes, $792
