Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if the full municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves No. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity, including $2,898 in tracked volume and one signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

28 smart money signals detected, totaling $151,608.

Categories: Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics, Ukraine

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$2,898 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$3,257 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$1,558 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial trader scaling into NO

A highly active serial cross-market trader added $5.9K to an existing No position at 44%, creating a meaningful directional signal despite only moderate historical edge.

  • This trader has placed $9.2M across 181 markets and won 72% of 815 resolved bets.
  • They added $5,897 to an existing No position at 44%; No has since risen to 48%.
  • The trade targets a near-even geopolitical market with a long resolution horizon, suggesting meaningful downside conviction on Russia capturing the city.

$2,321 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial trader scaling into NO

A highly active serial cross-market trader added $5.9K to an existing No position at 44%, creating a meaningful directional signal despite only moderate historical edge.

  • This trader has placed $9.2M across 181 markets and won 72% of 815 resolved bets.
  • They added $5,897 to an existing No position at 44%; No has since risen to 48%.
  • The trade targets a near-even geopolitical market with a long resolution horizon, suggesting meaningful downside conviction on Russia capturing the city.

$5,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$14,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$22,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$5,089 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$13,986 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven geopolitical sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $315k lifetime profit bought Yes on a Ukraine war market that has moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $315k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 69 events with $2.4M deployed.
  • Bought Yes at 55¢ before the market moved to 59¢, with price up 12.5 points in the past day.

$11,948 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa2f1...2d22 Yes, $260,869 (77% win rate)
  2. 0x5739...5f1a No, $86,059 (55% win rate)
  3. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $55,146 (61% win rate)
  4. 0xb9f1...a6a0 Yes, $37,689 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $36,531 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x8631...9a73 Yes, $31,447
  7. 0x8f69...7df1 No, $29,718 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x129d...7d2d Yes, $21,974 (57% win rate)
  9. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $19,076
  10. 0xb8b4...1f6e No, $17,486 (67% win rate)

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Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

111dWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?$151,608 tracked28 signalsPoliticsUkraine MapGeopoliticsUkraine
Yes
39¢
No
62¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Price History — “No
63¢
59¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

1d ago

$2,898 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

6d ago

$3,257 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

7d ago

$1,558 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

16d ago

$2,321 on No at 44¢

44¢62¢18¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

16d ago

$5,897 on No at 44¢

44¢62¢18¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

16d ago

$14,800 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

17d ago

$22,400 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

18d ago

$5,089 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

19d ago

$13,986 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

20d ago

$11,948 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

21d ago

$24,325 on Yes at 52¢

52¢39¢13¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

29d ago

$2,495 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

35d ago

$3,039 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

47d ago

$2,400 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

61d ago

$4,276 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

61d ago

$4,415 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

61d ago

$1,921 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

69d ago

$1,477 on Yes at 44¢

44¢39¢5¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

76d ago

$2,159 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

76d ago

$1,910 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

80d ago

$1,610 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

81d ago

$1,705 on Yes at 55¢

55¢39¢16¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

97d ago

$1,472 on No at 75¢

75¢62¢13¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

107d ago

$1,095 on No at 66¢

66¢62¢4¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

120d ago

$1,630 on No at 62¢

62¢62¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

137d ago

$5,591 on No at 65¢

65¢62¢3¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

156d ago

$2,500 on No at 60¢

60¢62¢2¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

166d ago

$3,433 on No at 50¢

50¢62¢12¢

Related Theses