Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026, based on the ISW control map. It resolves “Yes” only if the whole municipality is shaded red on ISW by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $7,221 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including geopolitics and war-market traders.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,154.
Categories: Ukraine, Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Serial cross-market trader with a large positive track record is buying No on a relatively quiet geopolitics market.
- This bettor has a long record: 642 resolved bets, 61% wins, and about $209k in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 151 events and $1.34M of tracked event bets.
- The $1.6k No buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $4.7k traded in the last 24 hours.
$1,630 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial geopolitics bettor
A high-volume, profitable serial cross-market trader with 636 resolved bets bought No on a geopolitics market at 65¢, and the price has already moved in their favor to 70¢.
- This bettor has 636 resolved trades, wins 61% of them, and is up $210k lifetime.
- They trade across many related markets — 144 events and 229 markets — which suggests a repeatable research process rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 65¢ and the market is already at 70¢, so the trade moved their way quickly.
$5,591 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable war-market grinder
A profitable high-volume geopolitical trader with 617 resolved bets bought No at 60¢ in a moderately active war market, making this a reasonable follow despite only a mid-tier composite score.
- This bettor has won 61% of 617 resolved markets and is up about $170k lifetime
- They trade this theme heavily across 127 events and 204 markets, suggesting repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
- Bought No at 60¢ with a $2.5k order while the market has drifted lower over the past week
$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large positive P&L made a $3.4k No bet that dwarfed this market's daily flow, suggesting informed conviction in a thin book.
- This bettor has 612 resolved trades, a 60% win rate, and is up $155k overall
- Their $3.4k bet was 5.7x this market's entire 24-hour volume, a strong conviction signal in a thin market
- They trade across 201 related markets and bought No at 50¢, with the market now at 55¢
$3,433 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $39,961 (61% win rate)
- 0xb9f1...a6a0 — Yes, $31,810 (42% win rate)
- 0x8631...9a73 — Yes, $31,447
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $14,987 (67% win rate)
- 0x129d...7d2d — Yes, $10,578 (57% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — Yes, $3,722 (53% win rate)
- 0x2bd2...c21b — Yes, $3,290 (41% win rate)
- 0xe0f1...c4bd — No, $3,079 (64% win rate)
- 0x5709...22c3 — Yes, $2,973
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $2,714 (78% win rate)
