Part of: Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
This prediction market tracks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, based on the ISW map. The market resolves “Yes” only if the whole municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $2,921 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,921.
Categories: World, Kupyansk, Geopolitics, Politics, putin, Military Actions, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map, Ukraine, Russia
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market war bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a No position in a thin Kupiansk market, with broader $74k positioning across related markets and favorable price movement.
- This bettor is up $261k lifetime and has traded 266 markets across 166 events.
- They have $74k positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This buy was 65% of the market’s 24h volume, and the price has already moved from 89¢ to 94¢.
$2,921 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $3,294 (61% win rate)
- 0xaa24...a99c — Yes, $3,033
- 0x172b...a0c9 — Yes, $1,394
- 0x5592...a85b — Yes, $1,305
- 0x700c...3c8e — Yes, $1,152
- 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $804
- 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $795
- 0x0362...449e — No, $400
- 0x1469...0ae9 — No, $385
- 0x158f...1dbd — No, $374
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Russia won't capture Kupiansk
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