Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether Russia will capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by August 31, 2026. Resolution is based on the ISW map: the market resolves “Yes” if any part of the train station icon is shaded red by the deadline, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $3,140 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,893.
Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a YES position across several related Russia/Kostyantynivka markets amid a sharp 1-day price move.
- This trader is up $364K lifetime and has traded 247 markets across 161 events.
- They have $13.8K across five related markets and are adding to the same YES view here.
- The market is up 29.5 points in 24h, and this 80¢ entry has already moved to about 85¢.
$3,140 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes in a thin Ukraine war market, taking a large share of recent volume and catching a sharp move from 32¢ to 58¢.
- This bettor has traded 172 related event markets and is up about $297K lifetime.
- They bought $2.8K of Yes in a thin market with only $4.4K of 24h volume.
- One fill came at 32¢ before the market moved to 58¢, suggesting they caught a major repricing.
$2,753 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x8f69...7df1 — Yes, $6,965 (68% win rate)
- 0xd251...4d37 — No, $6,370 (90% win rate)
- 0xc984...37ca — No, $5,551 (73% win rate)
- 0xd352...4ad6 — Yes, $4,000 (46% win rate)
- 0x3594...dc58 — No, $3,216 (42% win rate)
- 0x3c4f...831e — Yes, $2,344 (81% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Yes, $1,500 (59% win rate)
- 0xc5a3...883a — Yes, $1,484 (53% win rate)
- 0xa0b6...3961 — No, $1,439 (61% win rate)
- 0xfad4...379b — No, $1,230
