Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
8 signals across 4 markets · $19,656 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2025
This Polymarket event tracks whether Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by several deadlines, including May 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026. PolySpotter monitors the event as a whole, highlighting how traders are positioning across the different date-based outcomes and where smart money is buying Yes or No.
Markets (4)
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?3 signals · $9,812 tracked
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?2 signals · $4,970 tracked
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?2 signals · $2,478 tracked
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?1 signal · $2,396 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable cross-market war bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is buying No on a thin Ukraine-war market while also positioning across related markets.
$1,970Wallet win rate: 61%Score: 7.0 - 85% winner buying Yes
Strong copy-trade candidate: a highly profitable 85% win-rate serial cross-market bettor is buying Yes on a geopolitics market where informed views are plausible.
$2,396Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 7.0 - New wallet betting thin market
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly making sizable bets on a thin Ukraine-war market, with this No buy alone exceeding recent daily volume, though the wallet has no proven track record yet.
$1,296Wallet win rate: 33%Score: 7.0 - New wallet buying thin YES
A repeat-flagged new wallet is taking a meaningful Yes position in a thin, wide-spread Ukraine war market where informed edge is plausible.
$1,031Score: 6.0 - Profitable conflict-market bettor
A profitable 150-bet wallet is adding a meaningful No position on a low-volume Russia capture market, with correlated positioning across the same event.
$4,049Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 4.3 - 13-0 bettor buying NO
A 13-0 profitable wallet made a meaningful $3k NO bet on a thin Ukraine-war market and has related cross-market positioning.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 4.0 - New wallet backs No
A brand-new wallet placed a meaningful $4.7k No bet on a moderately thin war-resolution market, making the fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no track record.
$4,732Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - 90% winner buying Yes
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes around 70¢ on a geopolitics market.
$1,182Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 2.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x96b230…1bff$4,732 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xc9328e…e6a5$4,049 · 1 market · 1 alert · 66% wins
- 0xbfba6d…7567$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x31c518…ede4$2,396 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0xd44e97…67e2$1,970 · 1 market · 1 alert · 61% wins
- 0x7a1994…fe01$1,296 · 1 market · 1 alert · 33% wins
- 0x8fa099…72d6$1,182 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x15af3f…9e32$1,031 · 1 market · 1 alert
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Russia capturing Kostyantynivka?
The odds vary by deadline because each child market asks whether Russia captures Kostyantynivka by a specific date. Check the event hub to compare how traders price the May 31, June 30, and later capture scenarios.
What is smart money doing on this Kostyantynivka market?
PolySpotter has tracked $8,397 in smart-money activity across this event, including signals from a profitable cross-market war bettor, an 85% winner buying Yes, a new wallet buying thin Yes liquidity, and a 13-0 bettor buying No.
Is this one market or multiple Polymarket markets?
It is an event hub covering multiple related child markets. Instead of only tracking one contract, the page compares the broader prediction market for whether Russia captures Kostyantynivka by different deadlines.
When does the Kostyantynivka capture market resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its own stated deadline and Polymarket rules for determining whether Russia captured Kostyantynivka. The event’s tracked resolution information currently points to the broader event resolving by December 31, 2025, while individual contracts may have separate dates.