Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,396.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

85% winner buying Yes

Strong copy-trade candidate: a highly profitable 85% win-rate serial cross-market bettor is buying Yes on a geopolitics market where informed views are plausible.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $1.5M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events with $213K in similar positioning.
  • Entry at 77¢ means they still see value despite Yes already being the favorite.

$2,396 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8f69...7df1 Yes, $61,488 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xa0b6...3961 No, $55,184
  3. 0x5739...5f1a Yes, $30,412 (53% win rate)
  4. 0x1d5c...55df No, $29,595
  5. 0x0b21...deb6 Yes, $12,651 (74% win rate)
  6. 0xd054...7e38 No, $10,960 (79% win rate)
  7. 0x8631...9a73 Yes, $10,544
  8. 0xb1ca...1705 Yes, $9,000 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $8,871
  10. 0xc932...e6a5 No, $7,404 (67% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 3 related markets

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

242d$2,396 tracked1 signalUkrainePoliticsWorldGeopoliticsRussia CaptureUkraine Map
Yes
78¢
No
23¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes
83¢
79¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

2h ago

$2,396 on Yes at 77¢

77¢78¢1¢

Related Theses

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | PolySpotter