Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by July 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if any part of the station icon is shaded red on the ISW map by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $3,248 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,248.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Proven geopolitical sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate and $313k lifetime profit bought Yes as the market moved sharply upward.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $313k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with 74 events and $2.4M traded, suggesting a repeatable edge.
  • They bought Yes at 59¢ while the market is up 32 points in 24 hours, showing momentum behind the position.

$3,248 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa2f1...2d22 Yes, $5,503 (77% win rate)
  2. 0x8f69...7df1 Yes, $5,029 (68% win rate)
  3. 0xc984...37ca No, $4,021 (73% win rate)
  4. 0xc93c...52f1 No, $3,957 (51% win rate)
  5. 0xd251...4d37 No, $3,090 (90% win rate)
  6. 0xc191...6a2c No, $3,019
  7. 0x0bd6...63e0 Yes, $3,000
  8. 0xeeff...9b38 Yes, $2,664
  9. 0xd849...59d6 Yes, $2,519
  10. 0xff9d...af7c Yes, $2,458

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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

12dWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?$3,248 tracked1 signalUkrainePoliticsWorldGeopoliticsRussia CaptureUkraine Map
Yes
20¢
No
81¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Price History — “No
83¢
60¢
37¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

14d ago

$3,248 on Yes at 59¢

59¢20¢39¢

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