Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory?
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
This Polymarket market asks whether Sánchez will win the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a margin of 0–4 percentage points. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official valid-vote percentage gap between the top two candidates. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,799 in smart money activity, including a recent profitable-wallet signal on No.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,799.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Peru Election, Peru, rewards 200, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet on No
A profitable new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is buying No in a quiet Peru election-margin market at over 2.5x the past-day volume.
- This new bettor is already up $3.1K and has had 9 large-bet alerts totaling $22.3K.
- The $1.8K No buy was 267% of the market’s past-day volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
- They are fading a narrow 0–4% Sánchez win even as Yes has risen 13.5% over the past week.
$1,799 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $4,606
- 0xf564...c6c6 — Yes, $2,545
- 0x8b36...a393 — No, $2,317 (100% win rate)
- 0xa7ee...17f6 — Yes, $1,459
- 0x3d04...78a7 — Yes, $874
- 0x0380...073d — No, $530 (73% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $523 (47% win rate)
- 0x6291...cc47 — Yes, $500
- 0x167a...91d5 — Yes, $432 (62% win rate)
- 0x463f...e458 — Yes, $400
