Part of: MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $173,261.

Categories: Politics, michigan, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, House Primary, Democratic Primary, Michigan Primary, August 4 Primaries, US Election

Notable Trades

Serial trader doubles down on Yes

A serial cross-market trader with a profitable history added $58.8K to an existing Yes position during a 301x volume spike, despite the market later falling sharply.

This bettor has won 71% of 279 resolved trades and is up $777K lifetime.
They added $58.8K to an existing Yes position, bringing total exposure above $160K.
The trade coincided with a 301x historical volume spike, although Yes has since fallen from 59¢ to 30¢.

$58,817 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial trader scales into No

A serial cross-market trader added to an existing No position during a 208x volume spike and major repricing, though their historical edge is modest.

The wallet added $2,707 to No at 56¢, reinforcing an existing position now worth roughly 76¢.
Trading activity spiked to 208x its historical average, while the market repriced sharply toward No.
This trader has 323 resolved bets and is up $253,598, but a 64% win rate makes the signal supportive rather than definitive.

$2,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Sharp wallets scaling into Yes

A concentrated $70,000 Yes position from multiple wallets is supported by a highly profitable 84% win-rate trader and a major volume spike, despite the market moving sharply against the initial entries.

A proven bettor has won 84% of 174 resolved trades and is up $1.17 million lifetime.
Three wallets committed $70,177 to Yes, with existing holders adding to positions and a 208x volume spike.
The bet was made around 59¢ while Yes is now near 28¢, creating substantial risk but also a potentially meaningful contrarian entry if the thesis remains valid.

$70,177 on Yes

Sharp trader buys Yes cheaply

A highly profitable serial trader effectively bought Yes at 11¢, followed by a sharp 30-point rise in the market’s Yes price.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $1.17 million lifetime.
Selling No at 89¢ was equivalent to buying Yes at roughly 11¢; Yes has since risen to 41%.
The wallet has traded across 56 events and 77 markets, with another position in this event supporting the thesis.

$7,559 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial trader takes $34K position

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and $1.14M lifetime profit made a large $34,000 position in a relatively thin market, though the conflicting Yes and No trades make the signal less clean.

This bettor has won 84% of 173 resolved trades and is up $1.14 million lifetime.
The trader deployed $34,000 in a market with only about $6,143 in 24-hour volume.
The No position remains aligned with the current 84% market probability, while the simultaneous Yes trade makes the overall positioning unusually mixed.

$34,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $113,273 (71% win rate)
0xe899...0899 — Yes, $103,372 (72% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — No, $58,330
0x64c8...73ce — Yes, $18,265 (75% win rate)
0x3151...4393 — Yes, $5,378 (87% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $5,270 (81% win rate)
0xc2e5...b3a5 — Yes, $4,901 (65% win rate)
0x69e7...d3b0 — Yes, $4,751 (54% win rate)
0xe234...304a — Yes, $2,000 (66% win rate)
0x661d...4dc6 — Yes, $1,840 (67% win rate)

Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner$173,261 tracked5 signalsPoliticsmichiganElectionsPrimariesprimary electionsHouse PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryMichigan PrimaryAugust 4 PrimariesUS Election

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