Part of: Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?

Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,835.

Categories: World, Berlin, Germany, Politics, Elections, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor adds to Yes

A proven profitable bettor with a 77% win rate is adding to an already large Yes position in a thinly traded market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of trades across 39 resolved positions and is up $36,822.
  • They added $1,118 to an existing $8,087 Yes position at 45¢, signaling continued conviction.
  • The trade was more than three times the market's 24-hour volume, despite the market resolving in 2026.

$1,718 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Sharp bettor adds to Yes

A proven profitable bettor with a 77% win rate is adding to an already large Yes position in a thinly traded market.

  • This bettor wins 77% of trades across 39 resolved positions and is up $36,822.
  • They added $1,118 to an existing $8,087 Yes position at 45¢, signaling continued conviction.
  • The trade was more than three times the market's 24-hour volume, despite the market resolving in 2026.

$1,118 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 58479848, $5,137 (94% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 10434966, $3,872
  3. 0xf5e8...9fbd Outcome 58479848, $1,050
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 58479848, $627
  5. 0x629b...995a Outcome 10434966, $573 (53% win rate)
  6. 0xf03d...21fb Outcome 58479848, $325
  7. 0xe432...934a Outcome 58479848, $198 (75% win rate)
  8. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 58479848, $190
  9. 0x43cb...84df Outcome 58479848, $183
  10. 0xb17d...59ae Outcome 58479848, $100 (82% win rate)

Related Theses

AfD will win most seats

Covers 2 related markets

Linke will lead Berlin election

Covers 2 related markets

Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

ResolvedBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?$2,835 tracked2 signalsWorldBerlinGermanyPoliticsElectionsWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Price History — “No
101¢
70¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

5d ago

$1,718 on Yes at 45¢

Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

5d ago

$1,118 on Yes at 45¢

Related Theses