Part of: Texas Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election in Texas, including any required runoff. The market includes smart-money tracking and resolves based on the officially determined election winner; current odds are shown on the live market page.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,291.

Categories: Politics, Elections, US Election, Midterms, Texas Senate, Senate midterms, Texas Midterm, James Talarico, Ken Paxton

Notable Trades

82% win-rate serial trader

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is re-entering Yes on the Texas Senate market at 51¢.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,606 resolved positions and is up $835,742 lifetime.
  • The wallet typically buys at an average winning price of 42%, indicating a meaningful edge beyond simply backing favorites.
  • After previously closing a Yes position, the trader re-entered with $1,000 at 51¢ across a market portfolio spanning 59 events.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor fades Democrats

A highly profitable political bettor with an 81% historical win rate is fading Democrats in a relatively quiet Texas Senate market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $657K lifetime.
  • They sold Democrat at 43¢, equivalent to buying Republican/No at 57¢.
  • The trade was large for recent activity, about 6x the market’s flagged 24h volume.

$1,291 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $75,843
  2. 0xa974...ef79 No, $75,073 (82% win rate)
  3. 0xa147...3fcc Yes, $20,344 (66% win rate)
  4. 0x629b...995a Yes, $18,446 (53% win rate)
  5. 0x162f...798d Yes, $11,187 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x328d...f7a9 Yes, $9,485 (90% win rate)
  7. 0x8e41...5932 No, $8,920 (48% win rate)
  8. 0x477f...19aa Yes, $7,468
  9. 0x5207...686b Yes, $7,000 (56% win rate)
  10. 0x9648...6825 No, $6,854 (70% win rate)

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Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Texas Senate Election Winner$2,291 tracked2 signalsPoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsTexas SenateSenate midtermsTexas MidtermJames TalaricoKen Paxton
Yes
52¢
No
49¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes
53¢
51¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

2d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 51¢

51¢52¢1¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

115d ago

$1,291 on No at 57¢

57¢49¢8¢

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