Part of: Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,669.

Categories: Fed, Fed Rates, Parlays, Economic Policy, Economy, fomc, Jerome Powell

Notable Trades

Profitable serial macro trader re-enters Yes

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader is re-entering Yes at 73%, though the signal is moderate and the market has recently weakened.

This trader has won 69% of 73,654 resolved bets and is up $480,106 lifetime.
The wallet has traded across 1,205 markets and is re-entering Yes after previously holding the same outcome.
Yes has fallen 22% over the past week, so this purchase represents conviction despite recent weakness.

$1,591 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Active bettor adding Yes

A highly active cross-market bettor is adding to an existing Yes position during a major volume spike and sharp upward move, though the entry is on a heavy favorite.

This very active bettor has traded 244 markets across 157 events and is adding to a $26.9k Yes position.
The market saw a huge volume spike and Yes has moved up 14 points in the last day.
Entry at 90¢ is a high-probability favorite, so the upside is limited but the flow is clearly one-sided.

$3,265 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Five-wallet macro cluster

Strong one-sided cluster buying Yes, led by repeat profitable macro/cross-market wallets and accompanied by a major volume spike and price move.

Five wallets bought $44.8K of Yes, with several adding to existing positions.
A serial cross-market trader in the flow has an 86% win rate across 243 markets.
Volume spiked 540x historical levels and Yes moved up 14.5 points in a day.

$44,812 on Yes