Part of: Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $49,669.
Categories: Fed, Fed Rates, Parlays, Economic Policy, Economy, fomc, Jerome Powell
Notable Trades
Profitable serial macro trader re-enters Yes
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader is re-entering Yes at 73%, though the signal is moderate and the market has recently weakened.
- This trader has won 69% of 73,654 resolved bets and is up $480,106 lifetime.
- The wallet has traded across 1,205 markets and is re-entering Yes after previously holding the same outcome.
- Yes has fallen 22% over the past week, so this purchase represents conviction despite recent weakness.
$1,591 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Active bettor adding Yes
A highly active cross-market bettor is adding to an existing Yes position during a major volume spike and sharp upward move, though the entry is on a heavy favorite.
- This very active bettor has traded 244 markets across 157 events and is adding to a $26.9k Yes position.
- The market saw a huge volume spike and Yes has moved up 14 points in the last day.
- Entry at 90¢ is a high-probability favorite, so the upside is limited but the flow is clearly one-sided.
$3,265 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Five-wallet macro cluster
Strong one-sided cluster buying Yes, led by repeat profitable macro/cross-market wallets and accompanied by a major volume spike and price move.
- Five wallets bought $44.8K of Yes, with several adding to existing positions.
- A serial cross-market trader in the flow has an 86% win rate across 243 markets.
- Volume spiked 540x historical levels and Yes moved up 14.5 points in a day.
$44,812 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10190985, $28,643
- 0x3eed...cb2a — Outcome 10190985, $11,081 (55% win rate)
- 0x0c01...797d — Outcome 10190985, $2,487
- 0x67d6...245e — Outcome 10190985, $1,415 (50% win rate)
- 0xc754...bb99 — Outcome 10190985, $1,020
- 0x04dc...2387 — Outcome 10190985, $800 (44% win rate)
- 0xa667...ceb3 — Outcome 10190985, $761 (90% win rate)
- 0x714d...c177 — Outcome 10190985, $422
- 0xd245...2318 — Outcome 10190985, $357
- 0x26ef...a308 — Outcome 10190985, $345 (81% win rate)
Related Theses
Türkiye avoids defeat
Covers 3 related markets
Brazil-Japan match will happen
Covers 3 related markets
Türkiye-US match gets played
Covers 3 related markets
Japan-Sweden match will happen
Covers 3 related markets
Several favorites could win the World Cup
Covers 7 related markets
Argentina will not win
Covers 3 related markets
No deal by May
Covers 2 related markets
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June
Covers 2 related markets
Iran peace deal timing arbitrage
Covers 6 related markets
Iran avoids defeat vs New Zealand
Covers 3 related markets
