Part of: Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Houthi forces will successfully conduct a kinetic strike on, or seize control of, a commercial ship by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live prediction market odds plus smart-money activity, including $1,077 tracked and 1 smart-money signal so far. The market excludes attacks on military vessels and intercepted strikes that do not directly impact a commercial ship.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,331.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Geopolitics, Middle East

Notable Trades

Serial event trader riding breakout

High-volume cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L added to Yes during a major breakout in a geopolitically news-sensitive market.

  • This bettor has traded $9.0M across 208 markets and is up about $254k lifetime.
  • Yes has jumped 45 points in a day, and this buy came as the market broke far above its prior range.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position at 74¢, with the market already near 83¢.

$1,077 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial event trader riding breakout

High-volume cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L added to Yes during a major breakout in a geopolitically news-sensitive market.

  • This bettor has traded $9.0M across 208 markets and is up about $254k lifetime.
  • Yes has jumped 45 points in a day, and this buy came as the market broke far above its prior range.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position at 74¢, with the market already near 83¢.

$2,554 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial event trader riding breakout

High-volume cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L added to Yes during a major breakout in a geopolitically news-sensitive market.

  • This bettor has traded $9.0M across 208 markets and is up about $254k lifetime.
  • Yes has jumped 45 points in a day, and this buy came as the market broke far above its prior range.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position at 74¢, with the market already near 83¢.

$2,495 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

84% serial cross-market winner

Proven 84% winner and serial cross-market trader is adding to a No position on a geopolitical market with recent price momentum in the same direction.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $35K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 32 events, suggesting a repeatable research edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • They are adding to an existing No position at 59¢ after Yes fell 22.5% in the last day.

$1,189 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial cross-market winner adding

Moderately interesting because a serial cross-market trader with a 43-3 resolved record is adding to a meaningful No position, and the market now offers a cheaper entry than their buys.

  • This serial cross-market bettor has won 43 of 46 resolved trades and is up $17.8k.
  • They added $4.6k to No and already hold about $10k on this market.
  • Current No is 60¢, cheaper than their 69–72¢ entries.

$4,616 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Proven bettor adding Yes

A profitable 77% winner is adding to a Yes position on a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward today.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $10.9k lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing Yes position, now about $3.5k invested near 40¢.
  • Yes is up 22.5 points today, suggesting broader momentum behind the same thesis.

$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $10,231 (74% win rate)
  2. 0x3c59...1766 Yes, $8,846 (72% win rate)
  3. 0x85a8...9281 No, $6,532 (94% win rate)
  4. 0xdbd0...8c1c Yes, $6,175 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x020f...de5e Yes, $4,883 (77% win rate)
  6. 0x6af7...5a6f No, $4,400 (84% win rate)
  7. 0x9453...1a48 No, $4,318 (55% win rate)
  8. 0x0845...6b6f No, $3,933 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $2,800 (48% win rate)
  10. 0x1086...27d2 Yes, $2,200

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Iran closes airspace late June

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Iran deal likely soon

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Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

12dHouthis successfully target shipping by...?$13,331 tracked6 signalsOilIranYemenHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle East
Yes
37¢
No
63¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Price History — “No
87¢
61¢
35¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

1d ago

$1,077 on Yes at 74¢

74¢37¢37¢

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

2d ago

$2,554 on Yes at 74¢

74¢37¢37¢

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

2d ago

$2,495 on Yes at 74¢

74¢37¢37¢

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

4d ago

$1,189 on No at 59¢

59¢63¢4¢

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

5d ago

$4,616 on No at 71¢

71¢63¢8¢

Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

5d ago

$1,400 on Yes at 40¢

40¢37¢3¢

Related Theses