Part of: Maine Senate Election Winner
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Republicans will win Maine’s 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. The provided market data does not include a current live price, but it records $1,400 in tracked smart money and one signal; the market resolves when the election winner is determined.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $47,397.
Categories: Maine Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, US Election, Politics, Elections, Graham Platner, Susan Collins, Troy Jackson, Global Elections, United States, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms
Notable Trades
Proven sharp buying underdog Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 1,766 resolved positions and a reported 32-point edge bought Yes at 34¢.
- This bettor has a 92% win rate across 1,766 resolved positions and is up $9.18M.
- They bought Yes at 34¢, a sizable position on the Republican outcome in a liquid market.
- The wallet is a prolific cross-market trader, active across 437 events and 764 markets.
$1,897 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Proven sharp with 3,503 resolved bets
A highly profitable bettor with 3,503 resolved positions and a strong win rate bought Yes at 37¢.
- This bettor has won 88% of 3,503 resolved positions and earned over $6.4M.
- They bought Yes at 37¢, a relatively low entry price, and have a long record of profitable cross-market trading.
$2,970 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Proven sharp adding to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 893 resolved positions and a substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position at 37¢.
- This bettor has won 84% of 893 resolved positions and earned $635,255 overall.
- They are adding $1,850 to an existing Yes position at 37¢, bringing their total investment in it to about $8,150.
- The wallet has traded across 227 events, suggesting an established record beyond this single market.
$1,850 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Eight-wallet linked No position
Eight wallets linked by a shared funder have accumulated a $1,081 No position, though this individual bettor has no clear track-record edge.
- Eight wallets share a funder and have accumulated $1,081 on No across runs.
- The latest buy was No at 63¢, but the bettor’s 55% win rate does not show a clear edge.
- The market is liquid, and this single trade is modest relative to its $250,000 liquidity.
$1,081 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Profitable bettor adds to Yes
A profitable bettor with an 88% win rate is adding to a large Yes position at 44¢ amid a sharp volume spike.
- This bettor has won 15 of 17 resolved positions and is up $88,666 overall.
- They added $14,709 to an existing Yes position while volume surged to 95.8 times its historical average.
- The entry at 44¢ is below the market's current 45% odds.
$14,709 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
82% winner buying Yes at 35¢
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate across 1,727 resolved positions has opened a fresh $1,000 Yes position at 35¢.
- This bettor has won 82% of 1,727 resolved positions and is up $871,352.
- They opened a fresh $1,000 Yes position at 35¢, near the market’s current 34% odds.
- The wallet has traded across 64 events, though recent odds have fallen 7% over the past week.
$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven sharp betting No
A highly profitable bettor with an 86% win rate across 217 resolved positions is making a substantial bet against Republicans winning Maine, supported by a broad cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 86% of 217 resolved positions and is up $902,351 overall.
- They put $1,388 on No, joining a pattern of trading across 53 events and 77 markets.
- The No entry at 58¢ suggests they see value in Republicans not winning the race.
$1,388 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Serial bettor with $1.2M lifetime profit
A highly active cross-market trader with over $1.2M in reported profit placed a $6,695 bet on Yes, though their win rate and average win price do not establish a clear edge.
- This bettor has made $1.2M in reported profit across 1,366 resolved markets.
- They put $6,695 on Yes at 37¢, equal to 94% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The bettor has a 64% win rate, but their 93¢ average winning price offers limited evidence of an edge.
$6,695 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with 412 resolved trades and a meaningful edge is adding to an existing No position at 70¢, though the supporting market signals are modest.
- This bettor wins 75% of 412 resolved trades and is up $45,280 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,050 to No at 70¢, alongside an existing $3,100 position.
- The market is liquid and has barely moved, so the conviction comes mainly from the bettor’s track record rather than coordinated flow.
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with 412 resolved trades and a meaningful edge is adding to an existing No position at 70¢, though the supporting market signals are modest.
- This bettor wins 75% of 412 resolved trades and is up $45,280 lifetime.
- They are adding $1,050 to No at 70¢, alongside an existing $3,100 position.
- The market is liquid and has barely moved, so the conviction comes mainly from the bettor’s track record rather than coordinated flow.
$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $235,872
- 0x64c8...73ce — No, $143,397 (75% win rate)
- 0xe091...9549 — Yes, $85,165 (89% win rate)
- 0xe899...0899 — No, $60,474 (72% win rate)
- 0xe25b...0f1b — No, $44,098 (56% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $43,481 (88% win rate)
- 0xa577...91e3 — Yes, $42,508 (55% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $30,139 (73% win rate)
- 0x1c72...dfb6 — No, $25,786 (58% win rate)
- 0xa0f2...1848 — Yes, $24,033 (45% win rate)
