Part of: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,650.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump Presidency, World, Politics, Venezuela

Notable Trades

Proven bettor buying No

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a strong 549-bet track record and is buying No in a quiet market at 90¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $22,367 lifetime.
  • The $1,650 buy is 150% of this market’s 24-hour volume, so it stands out in a quiet market.
  • Entry at 90¢ implies a high-conviction view that a U.S. invasion is very unlikely.

$1,650 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0dde...94c3 — No, $21,761 (86% win rate)
  2. 0x29e4...4982 — No, $15,965
  3. 0x0509...6e98 — Yes, $14,009
  4. 0x5a7b...e9eb — Yes, $10,000 (86% win rate)
  5. 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $6,313 (54% win rate)
  6. 0x7744...999e — Yes, $4,240 (52% win rate)
  7. 0xe821...b27e — Yes, $3,266
  8. 0xba8d...009d — Yes, $1,249
  9. 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $1,209 (74% win rate)
  10. 0xbacd...ab35 — No, $827 (48% win rate)

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

ResolvedWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?$1,650 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTrump PresidencyWorldPoliticsVenezuela
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Price History — “No”
92¢
90¢
88¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

3h ago

$1,650 on No at 90¢

90¢→90¢