Part of: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,650.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump Presidency, World, Politics, Venezuela
Notable Trades
Proven bettor buying No
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a strong 549-bet track record and is buying No in a quiet market at 90¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $22,367 lifetime.
- The $1,650 buy is 150% of this market’s 24-hour volume, so it stands out in a quiet market.
- Entry at 90¢ implies a high-conviction view that a U.S. invasion is very unlikely.
$1,650 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x0dde...94c3 — No, $25,621 (87% win rate)
- 0x0509...6e98 — Yes, $11,570
- 0x5a7b...e9eb — Yes, $10,000 (64% win rate)
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $6,904 (53% win rate)
- 0x07e1...27af — No, $4,413 (97% win rate)
- 0x7744...999e — Yes, $4,240 (43% win rate)
- 0xed10...d2e5 — No, $2,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xcc79...1c2a — No, $1,000
- 0xc30c...6509 — No, $750 (95% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $750 (44% win rate)
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