Part of: What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range will be exactly 3.5% after the Federal Reserve’s December 2026 FOMC meeting. Traders are pricing the odds based on future Fed policy, inflation, labor market data, and the broader economic outlook. The market resolves using the Fed’s official post-meeting target range announcement, currently tied to the December 8-9, 2026 meeting.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $25,180.
Categories: Fed Rates, Economic Policy, Fed, Politics, Trump, Jerome Powell
Notable Trades
4-wallet macro rate cluster
Four wallets piled $25.2k into No within two minutes, including two linked wallets, creating a major one-sided flow signal in a macro market with a huge volume spike.
- Four wallets bought the same side within about 2 minutes, totaling $25.2k, and 2 of them share a funder
- Market volume spiked 631x versus its recent baseline, suggesting a sudden coordinated view on Fed rates
- They paid 76¢ for No, a concentrated bet that the Fed funds upper bound will not end 2026 at exactly 3.5%
$25,180 on No
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $17,929
- 0xcced...226b — Yes, $10,768
- 0xdd9c...31a0 — Yes, $2,128
- 0x8a7b...782f — Yes, $668
- 0xbd4b...937c — Yes, $656
- 0x71ed...d338 — Yes, $583 (83% win rate)
- 0xbefa...300d — Yes, $569
- 0xf1ca...4ac0 — No, $562
- 0xe372...eb38 — Yes, $467
- 0xabaa...a174 — Yes, $433
