Part of: Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether U.S. government personnel will directly participate on the ground in an operation that captures an active head of state of a UN member state by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,039 in smart money activity, with a recent high-win bettor signal buying NO.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time. For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody. U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,039.

Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Venezuela, Trump

Notable Trades

High-win bettor buys NO

Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history with an 85% win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $24,109 lifetime.
  • They put $1,039 on No in a quiet market with only $2,175 traded in the last day.
  • Entry at 87¢ suggests they are backing the high-probability side despite recent Yes price momentum.

$1,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8964...0bec No, $11,936 (85% win rate)
  2. 0x0dde...94c3 No, $2,085 (86% win rate)
  3. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $1,947 (49% win rate)
  4. 0x0482...6b0a Yes, $1,775 (32% win rate)
  5. 0xbb9f...557b Yes, $1,250
  6. 0x1810...de11 Yes, $1,233
  7. 0xc06b...ef68 Yes, $1,138
  8. 0x9d84...1344 No, $1,002 (41% win rate)
  9. 0x21c7...191a Yes, $1,000 (62% win rate)
  10. 0x0791...d81f Yes, $969

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

197dWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?$1,039 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsPoliticsVenezuelaTrump
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time. For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody. U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
92¢
88¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

2h ago

$1,039 on No at 87¢

87¢91¢4¢