Part of: Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether U.S. government personnel will directly participate on the ground in an operation that captures an active head of state of a UN member state by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,039 in smart money activity, with a recent high-win bettor signal buying NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time. For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody. U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,039.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Venezuela, Trump
Notable Trades
High-win bettor buys NO
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large resolved history with an 85% win rate and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $24,109 lifetime.
- They put $1,039 on No in a quiet market with only $2,175 traded in the last day.
- Entry at 87¢ suggests they are backing the high-probability side despite recent Yes price momentum.
$1,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0x8964...0bec — No, $11,936 (85% win rate)
- 0x0dde...94c3 — No, $2,085 (86% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — Yes, $1,947 (49% win rate)
- 0x0482...6b0a — Yes, $1,775 (32% win rate)
- 0xbb9f...557b — Yes, $1,250
- 0x1810...de11 — Yes, $1,233
- 0xc06b...ef68 — Yes, $1,138
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $1,002 (41% win rate)
- 0x21c7...191a — Yes, $1,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x0791...d81f — Yes, $969
