Part of: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether a top US official or federal agency will definitively state that extraterrestrial life or alien technology exists by December 31, 2026. Smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter totals $22,500, with recent signals showing both Yes clusters and multiple No whale or cluster buys.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
46 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,300,061.
Categories: Culture, Politics, Science, Aliens
Notable Trades
Elite trader exits No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved-bet win rate sold No at 90¢, though prior No exposure means this may be an exit rather than fresh Yes conviction.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $1.6M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 76 events with $14.2M in flagged activity.
- This trade is a sell of No at 90¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, but prior No exposure suggests it may be position management.
$22,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Sharp bettor buys long-shot Yes
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and +$48k P&L is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ by selling No.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $48k lifetime.
- Selling No at 90¢ is the same as buying Yes at 10¢.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside long-shot bet from a proven wallet.
$6,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
84% winner buying long-shot Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win rate is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ despite a relatively small trade on a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $11.6K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 10¢, a long-shot entry with about 10x payout if it hits.
- The same wallet has been active across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,084 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
8-wallet funded No whale
An 8-wallet funded cluster is putting over $650k into No, creating a major one-sided position despite the market already being large and liquid.
- Eight linked wallets share the same funder and have put about $768k total behind the same No thesis.
- This wallet alone bought $659k of No at 89¢, a very concentrated bet on a high-volume market.
- The buying came during a huge volume spike, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a casual large trade.
$658,594 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet with a 68% win rate and $286k lifetime P&L is buying No on a liquid long-dated aliens confirmation market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 1,294 resolved trades and is up $286k lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $889k deployed across 159 events.
- Buying No at 87¢ shows they are backing the high-confidence side despite limited upside.
$2,138 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
82% winner fading Yes
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L is selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 87¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $2,453 lifetime.
- They are betting against confirmation of aliens, selling Yes at 13¢.
- Entry at 87¢ on No suggests a high-confidence but lower-upside position.
$1,226 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial trader flips No
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader is flipping from a prior Yes position into No, though the market is very liquid and the bet is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor has won 71% of 3,581 resolved trades and is up $223k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 74 events, suggesting a repeatable betting process.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 86¢.
$4,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable serial trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is adding a modest No position, though the market is liquid and the trade itself is not large.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,174 resolved bets and is up $253K lifetime.
- They have traded across 140 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 86¢ implies a lower-risk position on No, with the market still pricing Yes at 14%.
$1,207 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
7-wallet cluster buying NO
High-scoring alert driven by a 7-wallet funded cluster and a $17k BUY No position on a major, liquid market, with the lead wallet showing positive realized P&L.
- Seven linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $91.6k behind this thesis.
- This wallet bought $17.1k of No at 85¢ and is up $116k on resolved markets.
- The market saw a 679x volume spike versus its historical average, supporting fresh momentum toward No.
$17,064 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
97% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 30/31 resolved-bet record is effectively buying No on a high-liquidity aliens confirmation market.
- This bettor has won 30 of 31 resolved bets and is up $5.1K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 85¢ by selling Yes at 15¢.
- Their past wins came at high average odds, but still beat implied odds by 17 points.
$1,522 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
Top Holders
- 0xa2cd...2ba0 — No, $1,455,976 (86% win rate)
- 0xaf23...377f — Yes, $894,254
- 0xcd09...da63 — Yes, $550,254 (84% win rate)
- 0x6ff0...7760 — Yes, $531,837 (38% win rate)
- 0x8c80...02c3 — No, $450,378 (81% win rate)
- 0xea42...6b0d — No, $427,197
- 0xb09d...64c8 — Yes, $399,697 (0% win rate)
- 0x115a...e4a6 — Yes, $398,900 (4% win rate)
- 0xe192...c237 — Yes, $315,886 (33% win rate)
- 0x9290...f429 — Yes, $262,089 (40% win rate)
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