Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,934.
Categories: referendum, Popular Vote, district, United States, gerrymander, Elections, US Election, Congress, Politics, Global Elections, Midterms, virginia, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets piled into Yes for over $6.2k as the price surged in minutes on a political market with strong 24h momentum, making this a modest but noteworthy coordinated flow signal.
- Three wallets bought the same side within minutes for $6.3k total as the price jumped about 12 points.
- Two of the wallets are profitable overall, including one up $95k lifetime across 890 resolved bets.
- This political market is already up 32% in a day, so the cluster is lining up with strong momentum rather than fading it.
$6,254 on Yes
Profitable serial political trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought into a moderately thin referendum margin market after a sharp recent move, making this worth surfacing despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor has won 68% of 790 resolved markets and is up about $702k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related events — 96 markets across 67 events with nearly $884k deployed
- Bought No at 58¢ in a market up 14.5 points in a day, and that price is now better at 53¢
$2,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $31,631
- 0x31c1...d6a8 — No, $29,455
- 0x0c0e...434e — Yes, $29,298 (71% win rate)
- 0xc8b9...b836 — Yes, $7,980 (63% win rate)
- 0xaab9...a08d — Yes, $5,648 (59% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — Yes, $3,523 (88% win rate)
- 0xc4fd...fe19 — Yes, $3,000 (83% win rate)
- 0x6ed6...6a8d — Yes, $2,522
- 0x9163...82ae — Yes, $2,389
- 0xa5e3...4d7e — No, $2,182 (28% win rate)
