Part of: Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,934.
Categories: referendum, Popular Vote, district, United States, gerrymander, Elections, US Election, Congress, Politics, Global Elections, Midterms, virginia, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
3-wallet Yes surge
Three wallets piled into Yes for over $6.2k as the price surged in minutes on a political market with strong 24h momentum, making this a modest but noteworthy coordinated flow signal.
- Three wallets bought the same side within minutes for $6.3k total as the price jumped about 12 points.
- Two of the wallets are profitable overall, including one up $95k lifetime across 890 resolved bets.
- This political market is already up 32% in a day, so the cluster is lining up with strong momentum rather than fading it.
$6,254 on Yes
Profitable serial political trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought into a moderately thin referendum margin market after a sharp recent move, making this worth surfacing despite the modest composite score.
- This bettor has won 68% of 790 resolved markets and is up about $702k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related events — 96 markets across 67 events with nearly $884k deployed
- Bought No at 58¢ in a market up 14.5 points in a day, and that price is now better at 53¢
$2,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 33086172, $41,293
- 0x31c1...d6a8 — Outcome 33086172, $29,455
- 0x2694...b5c0 — Outcome 33086172, $11,600
- 0xd1ac...08d5 — Outcome 33086172, $5,276 (49% win rate)
- 0xa8b9...06e1 — Outcome 33086172, $3,927
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 33086172, $3,000
- 0x9dd9...08bd — Outcome 33086172, $2,518
- 0x525e...0b73 — Outcome 33086172, $1,971
- 0x2e48...95c7 — Outcome 33086172, $1,354 (93% win rate)
- 0x6291...cc47 — Outcome 33086172, $900
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