Part of: Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,268.
Categories: Congress, Politics, referendum, gerrymander, Midterms, district, virginia, Elections, United States, Global Elections
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets simultaneously bought No in a large, liquid referendum market, including two high-volume bettors with strong win rates, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching.
- Three wallets bought No within minutes, putting $6.5k behind a contrarian 18-21¢ position.
- Two of the wallets have strong records: one wins 82% of 67 resolved bets, another is up $252k across 614 resolved bets.
- Buying No around 20¢ implies they think the market is overstating the referendum's chances of passing.
$6,491 on No
82% win-rate contrarian
A proven 82% win-rate trader with activity across 53 events is taking the contrarian No side at 20¢ in a liquid politics market, making this worth tracking despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $324k across $3.39M invested
- They have traded 93 markets across 53 events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- Buying No at 20¢ means they think the market is overstating the referendum's chances of passing
$1,734 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
82% win-rate contrarian
A proven profitable political trader with an 82% win rate is taking a contrarian No position at 16¢, offering a potentially attractive copy-trade despite only a single signal.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $324k overall
- They are buying No at 16¢ against an 84¢ market favorite, a clear contrarian shot
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks like a deliberate opinion rather than noise
$1,242 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
71% win-rate political bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a solid 71% win rate bought Yes into a major volume spike on a politically relevant referendum market.
- This bettor has won 110 of 155 resolved markets and is up nearly $68k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related events — 127 markets across 90 events with over $1.35M deployed
- The buy came during a 69.7x volume spike, suggesting informed attention on this referendum
$4,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
71% serial event trader
A high-volume serial political trader with a solid 71% win rate bought Yes at 84¢, adding a potentially informative signal despite only a single strategy firing.
- This bettor has a 71% win rate across 155 resolved markets and has traded 126 markets across 89 events.
- They put $4.2k into Yes at 84¢ in a liquid politics market, suggesting steady conviction rather than a random punt.
- Buying at 84¢ means they likely see the referendum as more likely to pass than the market implies.
$4,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
83% win-rate political bettor
A proven profitable bettor with an 83% win rate and over $300k in realized P&L is buying Yes in a real political market, making this a credible sharp-flow signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $304k lifetime
- They have traded 87 markets across 48 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought Yes at 85¢ in a political market, implying they still see value even with odds already high
$1,554 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and nearly $3.0M in profit made a large buy on Yes in a very quiet political market.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $3.0M lifetime across 969 bets
- They bought Yes around 24¢ in a market with only $756 of 24-hour volume, so this order was 6.4x the day's activity
- This wallet trades across many related events — 56 events and 87 markets — which points to a researched thesis rather than a random punt
$4,847 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0x8ed4...366a — Outcome 86819819, $180,000
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Outcome 86819819, $178,821 (63% win rate)
- 0x8235...505f — Outcome 86819819, $85,003
- 0x9410...fe7a — Outcome 86819819, $80,986
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 86819819, $52,154 (58% win rate)
- 0xac49...c64b — Outcome 86819819, $47,474
- 0x0a1c...efaf — Outcome 86819819, $44,529
- 0xc1eb...3b72 — Outcome 86819819, $41,938
- 0xe3f2...e1c1 — Outcome 86819819, $40,000
- 0x2da5...52fd — Outcome 86819819, $30,444
